HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT DID USDA MAKE?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
USDA Impact: 0:25min
Corn: 7:25min
Beans: 9:45min
Wheat: 12:05min
Cattle: 13:45min
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Futures Prices Close
Overview
Grains mostly lower following the impressive price action after Friday's USDA report.
Meanwhile the cattle finds some life after posting it's worst week of the year last week.
Friday's report was anything but bullish, yet prices had a bullish reaction.
How Did USDA Change Things?
Let's take a little deeper dive into what the USDA did on Friday and how this changes things moving forward.
Corn
We got the cut to yield everyone was expecting, but the surprise came in acres.
As the USDA found yet another +1.4 million acres.
This bump in acres more than offset the cut we saw to yield. Leading to a net increase of around +90 million bushels on the supply side of the balance sheet despite seeing yield drop -2.1 bpa.
At the same time, the USDA once again raised our exports. This time by +100 million. Which offset the increase in supply, leading to a very small net decrease to our carryout, virtually unchanged.
Here is the balance sheet and the changes the USDA made.
Green = Bullish
Red = Bearish
Current Balance Sheet
Want to know the craziest thing about the last two reports?
Here is a chart from Karen Braun show casing the USDA's corn acre change from the June survey to the Sep report.
These acre changes were unprecedented. We have never, ever seen anything like this before.
In the past 50 years, we have never seen acres jump by +1%. Only a handful of years even came close to +1%.
This year acres jumped nearly +4%.
That is how much of an anomaly these acre increase have been.
With this recent acre increase, acres are now essentially at an all-time high.
This is the most acres we've seen in 89 years, since 1936.
How big of an impact did this report have on corn?
It made it that much harder to achieve a tighter carryout if yield continues to fall. Because the acres add that much supply.
Here are a few examples.
None of these include demand changes. If the USDA drops supply, they will drop demand to offset some of the supply loss.
Scenarios:
But let's say yield were to come in at 183.
If the USDA would have left acres unchanged at 88.7, a 183 yield would have created a somewhat bullish scenario.
As it would have dropped carryout down to 1.5 billion and dropped our stocks to use ratio below 10%.
183 Yield & 88.7 Harvest Acres
But instead, if we were to now drop yield down to 183 with the 90 million acres, it doesn’t make nearly as bullish of an impact.
Without changing demand, it would result in a near 1.8 billion bushel carryout and a stocks to use ratio of 11%.
Neither of those are extremely bullish scenarios.
183 Yield & 90 Harvest Acres
Typically, the rule of thumb is that a stocks to use ratio under 10% is considered decently bullish.
Before this bump in acres on Friday, it would’ve only took a 184 yield to see a stocks to use ratio below 10%.
184 Yield & 88.7 Harvest Acres
With the added acres, it would now take a 181 yield to get a stocks to use ratio below 10%.
So a friendly outcome is still possible, but it now takes that much more of a drop in yield to achieve the same results.
181 Yield & 90 Harvest Acres
There are several who would argue that our feed & residual demand is too high and needs to be cut by at least 200 million.
What kind of impact would that have?
If we dropped feed by -200 million, it would take a -2 bpa decrease in yield to offset that loss in demand.
In this scenario:
Feed: Cut by -200 million
Yield: Cut by -2 bpa
Result: Carryout essentially unchanged
So the most acres on record really does make it hard to paint a mega bullish situation.
184.7 Yield & -200 Million Feed
Now of course, there is always that scenario where yield just simply isn’t there at all.
Let's say yield is all the way down at 179.
Without changing demand, it would result in a stocks to use ratio below 9%. Which is very bullish.
179 Yield & No Demand Change
Now let's say yield is 179.
But feed demand is also 200 million too high.
That low of yield would still create a decently bullish scenario.
So in reality, it is going to take a decently large cut to yield to see a super bullish situation in corn.
179 Yield & -200 Million Feed
Soybeans
The USDA really did not make any major changes on the soybean balance sheet.
They found an extra 200k acres.
But the yield cut of -0.10 offset most of this change. Resulting in a slight increase to total supply.
At the same time, the USDA did drop soybean exports by -20 million. However they raised crush and seed & residual demand which led to a wash on the demand balance sheet.
The net result was a slight increase to carryout but nothing dramatic.
I don’t think there is any way yield doesn’t get revised lower from here given we just saw one of the driest Augusts on record.
The USDA's export estimates are also probably too high.
The real question is which one is going to outweigh the other?
The loss in supply or the loss in demand?
Exports are going to be the wild card.
Does China come to the table or not?
How does the USDA account for this?
It's really anyone's guess.
But if we completely ignore demand and only look at the supply side of the balance sheet, it is still razor thin when it comes to room for error.
This does not include demand changes, but if yield came just -1 bpa lower at 52.5 it would potentially put our carryout at it's lowest levels in nearly a decade.
If yield came in at our current 51.9 record from 2016, it would be one of the tightest situations in a long time.
So that is why soybeans have a story. We could see a record yield yet see our tightest carryout in a decade.
Although I am sure we will see exports cut, which will offset some of this. The biggest question is by how much.
This is pretty much only possible due to having less acres this year.
Acres are still the 2nd lowest in at least a decade.
Only trailing behind 2019.
Sep vs Final Yield
Corn
It's actually about 50/50 the past decade whether we see an increase or a decrease in yield from Sep to final.
However, the last 3 of 4 changes lower were by more than -4 bpa.
Soybeans
Soybeans have a more clear trend of dropping from Sep to final.
As yield has dropped 6 of the last 8 years.
Last year was the biggest of the decade at nearly -2.5 bpa.
Today's Main Takeaways
Corn
Altough corn has a harder path to a substantially tight balance sheet given the increase in acres.
You have to imagine yield is getting smaller, perhaps even drastically smaller.
Here is the precip rankings from August 1st until today.
This doesn’t scream yield is 7 bushels an acre higher than anything we've seen before.
Here is data from the NOAA that actually weighs primary corn & soybean growing areas precipitation for August.
It was the driest since 2013.
I am not $5.00 corn bullish here yet by any stretch of the imagination.
However, I still think we've seen our lows for the year.
We've already priced in the biggest yield we are going to see.
The trade and the funds are very aware that yield is getting smaller, not larger.
Seasonally we carve out lows exactly where we just did.
Our lows this year were marked on the exact day the USDA printed a 189 yield.
Here is a March corn seasonal that aligns nicely with my thoughts on how this market could play out.
Red = 5 Year Seasonal
Green = 10 Year Seasonal
Both say we top around October 1st. Right in time for insurance pricing.
Both then suggest we go sideways to slightly lower into the end of the year, but do not revist those harvest lows.
Before heading higher into the new year when the USDA probably comes clean about where yield is at.
Technicals:
We saw a big sell off today but no damage was done on the charts.
Since we rallied big on Friday, today's candle was a complete inside day.
We didn’t take out Friday's highs or lows.
Which ever we take out first will decide our short term momentum.
Regardless, the chart looks pretty solid here.
First off, we broke out of a bullish pennant pattern.
Secondly, we finally broke this simple downward trend that had marked several highs since all the way back in April.
Momentum looks like it has shifted higher.
Now what?
I am eyeing $4.35 to de-risk.
That gives back 50% of our February highs.
It is also old key support from back in spring.
I will be alerting a sell signal & hedge alert if this hits.
Soybeans
Soybeans have a battle.
Will the loss in supply offset the loss in demand?
You have to wonder if the demand problem in soybeans could get corrected by a supply problem.
That is how tight the balance sheet is on the supply side.
August is the make or break month for beans.
I can’t imagine the driest August on record doesn’t result in lower yields.
If yield slips and export demand is fine, soybeans have an incredible amount of upside.
But export demand and China is going to be the wild card.
We are quickly approaching that time frame where we are going to need China to start buying our soybeans.
Here is a 5 year seasonal for March beans.
Typically we do start to struggle here pretty soon before finding a bottom in October.
We then typically head higher into the end of the year off the back of South America production uncertainty.
Daily Nov Chart:
Nov soybeans are rejecting right off the 61.8% retracement up to those recent highs.
This is a major spot and decision point in the market.
If we break above, it tells us this bounce has room to run and is no longer viewed as a correctional bounce. It would suggest our lows are in and we are headed higher.
If we fail here, it is still possible that we could go and post new lows.
The line in the sand to remain bullish is that blue box. Which we bounced off of perfectly near the recent lows.
Here is a chart that shows how powerful the 61.8% level tends to be.
I outlined the last two correctional bounces following those June highs.
Both of them rejected at the 61.8% level before heading lower.
That is why this level is so key.
Since we alerted a sell signal at those recent highs, our next target to de-risk is still going to be $10.82
As $10.82 gives back 50% of the May 2024 highs.
If you did not follow our sell signal at Target #1, then by all means de-risk if that first target hits again.
Wheat
Wheat continues to struggle near contract lows.
There isn’t one definitive catalyst saying "wheat has to go higher".
But I do still think wheat will eventually find some life down at these levels.
For starters, seasonally this is a bullish time period.
Wheat has traded higher from Sep 1st to Oct 1st the past 8 of 10 years.
Here is a 10 year seasonal for Dec wheat.
Typically we find a bottom right about now.
Daily Chicago:
The charts are the biggest reason my bias leans higher here for the wheat market.
We have a falling wedge pattern that we are breaking out of.
If we clear $5.35 that would be our green light telling us this market is ready to move higher.
I think that should ignite a move to $5.52 before finding major resistance.
That is 38.2% of the June highs and old support.
We are also showing some massive bullish divergence.
Prices continue to trickle lower, yet the RSI is not.
This tells us that downside momentum is getting weak.
Daily KC Wheat:
KC potentially trying to break out of this downward channel.
First real resistance comes in at the $5.40 range if we get the breakout.
Here is a continuous chart for KC wheat.
This makes me hopeful that these levels will be long term lows.
We are finding support right where we found resistance back in 2019 and 2020.
A classic case of old resistance turning into new support.
Cattle
One thing I wanted to point out was the funds.
They have been selling a lot of cattle after holding a massive record long position.
This is now their smallest long position they've held all year long.
So that has to be a sign of caution in this market, as it appears the funds are taking some profit.
Seasonally we tend to struggle here until around late October to early November.
But this a bull market, and anything can happen in a bull market.
Just another reason to have some caution up here.
Oct Feeder:
We are finding life right in the golden zone from those August 1st lows.
This is deep enough for a standard correction.
However, that 343.875 is going to be a big level to hold.
If we cannot hold that level, it opens the door lower.
Perhaps as low as 325 to 334. Which is the golden zone from the entire rally since June.
If we drop down to that level, I think that would be a great spot to look at some re-ownership strategies.
To say that we have found a bottom here, I need a close above 360. As that reclaims 61.8% of this sell off.
Oct Live:
Live cattle also bouncing in the golden zone.
229.600 is a huge spot to hold.
If we break below, it opens the door lower to the next golden zone.
If we close above 237 then we could be more confident the lows are in.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
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YIELD DECLINING INTO USDA REPORT?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Signs of correction or top in cattle
We could see massive correction yet still remain in a bull market in cattle
Why we like short term puts in cattle
Corn made new high for move failed at $4.25
USDA numbers out next week
Bears think feed demand overstated
Demand monster in corn, no China demand in beans
Still see wheat at area of value
Wheat should try to get acres here
A lot of disease being reported
Will demand offset supply loss?
Deal with China is biggest bullish card
If you’re aggressive in sales, have inputs locked in
Have a plan for stuff you have to move within the next 1-3 months
Implied volatility and options are cheap
Listen to todays audio below
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Here is extended access to our Labor Day sale
Don’t miss out on our future updates & our next sell signal in the grain markets
CORN & BEAN CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
If we break above $4.25 I think $4.35 is our next stop.
$4.25 is 38.2% retracement up to the Feb highs.
The next level is $4.35 at the 50% retracement.
That is going to be our target to de-risk.
It is also support from spring.
Nov Beans 🌱
I am looking for a bounce anywhere in this blue box. Which is 50-61.8% of the entire rally from $9.80
We tapped the box yesterday at the 50% retracement of the entire rally.
However, the 61.8% level is more common. So not ruling out testing the bottom of the box.
Regardless, the blue box is a must hold level to keep our bias remaining higher.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
SEASONAL SEP BOTTOM?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
Overview: 0:00min
Sep Bottom?: 1:20min
Corn: 3:10min
Beans: 8:05min
Wheat: 10:50min
Cattle: 12:30min
Want to talk about your situation?
(605)295-3100
Your free trial has ended
Don’t miss future updates or our next sell signal.
Here is extended access to our Labor Day sale since you were on a trial.
Futures Prices Close
Overview
Decent action in the grains today.
We started off the session well in the red but bounced. After corn being down -4 and beans being down -10 cents they both closed in the green.
Meanwhile the cattle market closes lower for the 3rd day in the row. The first time we've seen that happen since June.
We are seeing two completely different stories play out between corn & soybeans.
Corn is facing an oversupply issue due to the massive acerage. Yet, demand has been phenomenal. Export sales are double what they were last year at this time, and the best since the China driven buying in 2021/22.
Soybeans on the other hand are dealing with the opposite problem. We might not have enough supply, with acres being the 2nd lowest in the last decade. We just had a record dry August that has led to crop conditions slipping. However, demand is the thing everyone is worried about. China continues to avoid the US and opt for Brazil instead. With zero US beans sold to China.
Trump stated that China's President is teaming up with Putin and Kim Jong Un to conspire against the US
Wheat continues to struggle to find a story, as the US and the rest of the world isn’t short on wheat. This is despite the US being very competitive on exports. As recently we've seen the strongest demand numbers for wheat in over a decade.
Dry Finish Continues
We already know we just had a record dry August.
But the next 10 days are suppose to stay bone dry for most of those same regions that have been struggling.
Sep Seasonal Bottom?
On Tuesday I went over how during the past decade, the month of September is typically a friendly month for the corn market.
Here is the data in case you missed it.
From Sep 1st to Oct 1st.
Corn has traded higher 4 of the last 5 years.
Higher 8 of the last 10 years.
The only years we did not trade higher was 2023 and 2018.
On the 10 year seasonal, we normally trend higher until pretty much October 1st before trending sideways.
Right in time for the start of fall insurance pricing.
If we compare this year to last year, we continued higher until October 3rd.
Topping out at $4.30
To make this comparison to last year even more intriguing..
Here is the funds positions for last year vs this year.
This year, they started covering at the exact same time that they did last year.
What about the wheat market?
I found a similar pattern in the wheat market.
Here is the data for the month of September.
It is exactly the same as corn.
Higher the last 4 of 5 years.
Higher the last 8 of 10 years.
The only two years we traded lower were once again 2023 and 2018.
Now if we look at the actual seasonal chart, it has the wheat market posting it's bottom basically right now.
Before trending higher into the middle of October.
Comparing this year to last year, we found a bottom right about now. At about the same price levels we are currently sitting at around $5.20.
Before topping out on October 3rd after a +90 cent rally.
Does this mean corn or wheat "has" to rally in September.
No of course not.
This is simply what the historical data suggests.
Today's Main Takeaways
Corn
We have a supply that is getting smaller (although still record).
We have some of the best demand on record.
A 188.8 yield isn’t going to happen.
However, that is already now likely partially being priced in on the recent rally.
But I do think corn is supported until the USDA report because I'm sure plenty of traders want to know where yield is going to come in at.
The market's job is to put prices at fair values.
I have no clue if the yield is 180 or 185. But we do know supply is getting smaller.
How much does this matter?
Let's look at the balance sheet to find out.
Here is the current balance sheet. I left the last changes the USDA made on it.
Red is bearish, green is bullish.
If you remember, the USDA added +1 billion bushels of supply, but offset half of that with an extra +500 million bushels of demand.
Let's just say yield dropped to 185.
Without changing demand, it would still print a 1.80 billion bushel carryout.
Which isn’t as burdensome as the current 2.10 billion but is still far from being bullish.
When supply gets cut, the USDA will probably offset part of it with a decrease to demand as well.
Given they added that fresh +500 million bushels of demand, it gives them wiggle room to play with.
If yield dropped to 183, things do become more interesting.
The drop will not be this dramatic given they will also lower demand, but it spits out a 1.60 billion bushel carryout and a 10% stocks to use ratio.
Typically anything below 10% is considered bullish.
Now let's just say somehow yield actually came in at their original 181 estimate.
Well, that would paint the balance sheet pretty bullish.
Before changing demand, it drops the stocks to use ratio to 9%.
Which is bullish.
Here is a visual of corn carryout the past few years.
I plotted those scenarios on the chart.
If yield is 185 or less, we are still looking at our tightest carryout for this time of year since 2022.
We are going to have record production no matter how you slice it.
We have near record acres.
Along with a record yield.
Far greater than anything we've ever seen before.
But we are also exporting more corn than ever which is helping offset that major production.
Like I mentioned, export sales were great last year.
We are literally double what were sitting at the past 3 years during this same time.
Chart from DTN
Why I think the harvest low is in:
There are a few reasons why I think we posted our harvest lows.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But here is my thought process.
Continuous Chart:
This chart shows front month corn.
On August 29th last year, this chart rolled from the September contract to the December contract.
Since Dec was trading higher than Sep, it left a roll gap higher.
That gap remained unfilled for an entire year.
On the day of the USDA sell off in August, we almost perfectly filled that gap before heading higher.
Daily Dec Chart:
I mentioned this Tuesday.
We closed above the 61.8% retracement up to those mid-July highs (red box).
This tells us that this rally off contract lows is seen as more than just another correctional bounce before heading lower.
As a standard correctional bounce or correctional sell off is usually 61.8%.
Yesterday we rejected right off this downward trend from April.
It has marked a top in this market countless times.
If we bust above, it should spark a leg higher.
My Target: $4.35
$4.35 gives back 50% of the Feb highs.
It is also our old support level from spring.
Here is a more short term analysis.
On yesterday and this morning's sell off, we retracement almost 50% of the recent 3-day rally.
That is seen as deep enough for a standard correction.
On the last mini sell off, we also bounced right at the 50% retracement level.
So that "could" have been it for the correction.
We need to take out yesterday’s highs for confirmation.
Well what if this was our local top?
What level do we need to hold?
We need to hold $4.04
$4.04 is the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally off contract lows.
If we break below $4.04 we would probably test contract lows, although I don’t think this happens.
Soybeans
Basically a broken record story in beans.
A battle of not enough US supply but not enough demand from China.
Tuesday, we went over how the US balance sheet is razor-thin.
Even with a record yield, our carryout is sitting at 3-year lows.
And that number drastically falls if yield falls.
But the obvious concern is demand.
What if China refuses to buy US soybeans?
How big of an impact could this have?
Last year China bought 810 million bushels of soybeans from the US.
During the last trade war they only bought 330 million bushels.
Here is the current balance sheet.
Our carryout is 290 million.
Now or the sake of this arguement, let's say export demand is overstated by 500 million bushels.
This number is based on last years sales (810 million), and the previous trade war's sales (330 million).
If this happened, it would sky rocket our carryout to nearly 800 million bushels vs the current 290 milllion.
Here is what that looks like on the carryout chart.
Our carryout would be the 2nd highest of all-time.
Only behind last trade war.
So yes. We need China.
I have a hard time believing China completely cuts off the US, but I guess it's possible.
Even if China does not come to the table. Some of that business that normally goes to Brazil might wind up coming to the US. So this is an extreme example.
On the other hand, the upside in this market is higher than anyone thinks if China does come to the table.
USDA Yield
The USDA report is next Friday.
In August, they have cut yield 4 times in the past 5 years.
The average cut is 1 bpa.
Which would put yield at 52.6 bpa if it happened again.
Daily Nov Chart:
We have been mentioned that if we broke below this green box, our next stop could very well be the blue box.
The green box was the golden zone of this mini rally (50-61.8% retracement).
The blue box is the golden zone of the entire rally off of $9.80.
Today we bounced perfectly off of the 50% retracement at $10.22
Which means this move was technically deep enough for a standard correction and it might be over.
However, I am not ruling out testing the 61.8% level at $10.12
That is the line in the sand to keep the chart bullish.
For confirmation that this correction is over, I need to see a close above $10.47
That reclaims 61.8% of this sell off.
When we close above that level, it tells us that a move is no longer correctional.
August 22nd we had a sell signal & hedge alert at the highs.
The next target to de-risk further is still going to be $10.82 as of now.
Wheat
Wheat continues to be the dog of the grains.
Nothing new fundamentally.
Demand has been amazing lately. We're extremely competitive on the export markets. Yet we continue to struggle.
Here is the US stocks to use ratio.
It's at it's highest levels since 2020.
There is just simply an ample amount of wheat to go around.
Despite not having a true bullish catalyst.
I do still think the wheat market catches a bid down here eventually.
Seasonally, we put in our lows here.
The funds recently bought for the first time since June.
Although there isn’t a reason to be mega bullish, I find it very hard to get bearish at these price levels.
Daily Chicago:
We bounced at the bottom of this massive channel once again.
We posted new contract lows today before bouncing nicely off the lows.
A sign of a "potential" bear trap.
If we can clear $5.35 it will be a good indication we are headed higher.
We are showing some very clear signs of bullish divergence here.
Prices made new lows.
The RSI did not.
This suggests downside momentum is getting weaker.
Remember how the seasonals had us topping in October?
That thought process also lines up with this chart.
Every 4 months the wheat market has provided an opportunity.
I'd like to think it happens again.
Daily KC Wheat:
Nothing to update here.
Waiting patiently for a break out.
First real resistance is all the way at $5.40 or so.
Cattle
Oct Feeder:
We closed lower for 3 days in a row.
This is the first time we have seen this in 3 months.
I do view this as a potential sign our local top is in.
Am I saying the bull market is over? No of course not. But a simple correction shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Nobody knows if this is THE top of just another mini top before the dip gets bought.
We rejected the golden fib extension.
We have not closed below the 20-day MA since June (red line).
If we do, that could open the door lower.
If we head lower, the target is the blue box.
Oct Live:
Also rejected the golden fib.
Downside target if we get a true correction is the blue box.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
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SEPTEMBER CORN RALLY?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
Overview: 0:00min
Record Dry August: 0:50min
Funds Buying?: 1:40min
Inflation Play: 2:55min
Corn: 4:10min
Beans: 7:30min
Wheat: 10:55min
Cattle: 12:55min
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Futures Prices Close
Overview
Following Friday's stellar performance, grains (outside of corn) start off September on a sour note after the 3-day weekend.
Soybeans & wheat struggled while corn battled and rallied +9 cents off it's early day lows.
On Friday, Dec corn posted its strongest daily gain since July 2nd.
Many are speculating about a rumor that China is buying US corn, and that was the reason for the strength on Friday. I would call this rumor completely false. When China buys corn, the market will probably know.
Friday's strength was a combination of several factors. It was the end of the month position squaring. First notice day pressure was out of the way.
We just had one of the driest August's on record which brings in yield uncertainty given that the USDA just gave us a 188.8 corn yield and 53.6 bean yield a few weeks ago.
Record Dry August
This August was one of the driest ever.
You can throw those 188.8 and 53.6 yield projections out the window in my opinion.
The entire state of Ohio saw it's driest August ever.
Indiana saw a top 5 driest August in 133 years.
Even the bottom 2/3rds of Illinois saw a top 5 driest August ever.
You cannot tell me these crops aren’t getting smaller.
Not to mention the the possible rust issues, pollination issues, hot nights in July etc.
The majority of this summer was ideal weather. Last year we saw the same thing. We had great potential only for it to be hindered by a dry finish.
Here is the forecast for the next 7 days.
Still remains pretty dry for most regions.
Are Funds Buying?
Corn
The funds have consistently been buying corn since July.
This is the first time we have seen consistent buying since all the way back in January.
Let's look at their actual short vs long positions.
This is not short covering we are seeing in the corn market.
It is actually more people opening up long positions.
Shorts aren’t scared yet, but some see potential in being long.
Beans
The funds have bought for 3 straight weeks in a row now.
Pretty much the most consistent buying we've seen since last fall.
Unlike corn, this entire move from the funds is entirely short covering.
Short positions in beans have plummeted, meanwhile long positions haven’t moved an inch.
Basically, there is more fear is being short this market.
Bean Meal
The funds have been short covering this market like crazy for the last month.
Just 3 weeks ago they had held their largest short position of all-time.
We are now seeing short covering and funds hit the exit door.
Wheat
The funds just starting buying again for the first time since June.
After shorting this market the entire month of August.
Interest Rates & Inflation Play
I haven’t talked about this in a while, but if you've been following along I've been talking about this for months.
The argument that perhaps the funds don’t truly get behind this market until they are confident that rates will be cut.
In a nutshell:
Rate cuts lead to higher inflation. Which usually leads to more expensive commodities.
Rate hikes lead to lower inflation. Which usually leads to cheaper commodities.
Here is a chart that shows rate cuts, rate hikes, inflation, and corn & soybeans prices.
On a big picture scale, we tend to follow inflation higher or lower.
The last rate hikes we saw were back in 2022. They marked the top in the bull market for corn and beans.
The first rate cuts we saw since 2020 happened last fall. Which happened right before the most sustained rally the corn market has seen this entire bear market.
If you notice, inflation has started to pick back up the past few months.
According to the betting markets, there is an 86% chance for rate cuts in September.
I could very easily see a scenario like last year pan out.
The funds are starting to buy at the exact same time they did last year.
Interest rate cuts are coming just like what we saw last fall.
Today's Main Takeaways
Corn
September Rally in Corn?
How often does the corn market rally through out the month of September?
First, here is the 10-year seasonal.
Normally, this market has pretty much bottomed on September 1st and rallied through October 1st the past decade.
I don’t think it's a coincidence that this rally is just in time for fall insurance pricing.
Now here is the data for corn's performance in September.
We have traded higher in September the past 8 of 10 years.
Higher the past 4 of 5 years.
The only two years we did not trade higher were 2023 and 2018.
Average rally is +18 cents.
Average loss is -4 cents.
The 5 year seasonal here is pretty interesting.
We bottomed exactly where it had us bottoming.
On average the past 5 years, we continue to climb higher throughout the end of the year.
The crop is getting smaller. Demand remains at historically great levels.
I'd like to think most dips get bought in the corn market until at least the USDA report.
Because I'm sure there are plenty of traders who are curious to see where yield comes in at before getting more bearish than they were a few weeks ago, given that there is zero chance yield gets bigger.
Yield is getting smaller. But whether yield is 185 or 180 is anyone's guess.
The massive 97 million acres of corn is going to make a huge rally tough and limit our upside unless yield is closer to 180. Because even if yield only slips a little bit, we are still going to have record production.
Given that the USDA also has some giant demand projections, there is some wiggle room for them to knock demand lower if production gets adjusted lower as well.
Regardless, I do think there is a very solid chance we have printed our harvest lows, which I'll explain in the charts.
Daily Dec Chart:
We closed above the 61.8% retracement up to those mid-July highs (red box).
What does this mean?
It tells us that this rally off contract lows is seen as more than just a correction bounce. It has some impulse to it.
Which makes me believe the harvest lows are in.
Now what?
We are potentially busting above this downward trend from April.
We rejected off this simple line several times since then.
This could spark a leg higher and get some momentum behind this market, if we break out.
I'd say we need one more day higher to confirm we're breaking out.
Target:
How high?
I am eyeing the $4.35 level.
That is where I would look to de-risk.
Not only is it old support from spring (now resistance).
This level also claws back 50% of the highs from February.
Monthly Chart:
This is a phenomenal looking chart.
We posted a hammer candle last month.
Which is viewed as a bullish sign if you see follow through to the upside.
Soybeans
After market close today, soybean crop conditions came in at 65% rated G/E.
Last week we were at 69% and the trade was expecting 68%.
So a pretty big swing from last week and a surprise lower.
Maybe the record dry August is starting to show up.
You'd like to think this might spark some interest.
The soybean crop isn’t getting bigger.
August is where beans are made.
One of the driest August's on record doesn’t scream a near 54 bpa yield to me.
Soybeans have a ton of upside "potential" because the room for error on the balance sheet is razor thin.
I'm not going to get too into this today as we've went over this a thousand times.
Acres are the 2nd lowest in a decade.
This is why the balance sheet has a pathway to become incredibly tight.
But even if yield came in at 54 bpa our carryout would still be lower than last year due to the drastically small acres (without changing demand).
We've never seen a 52 bpa yield. Even if yield slipped down to 52 our carryout would drop to the lowest levels in a decade.
That is why there is "potential" for this market.
Now.. on the other hand.. none of this matters if our demand get's destoryed.
We need to sell some soybeans to China or this market could be in trouble.
Exports to China account for roughly 20% of all demand on our balance sheet. Without them, even if we have a crop failure we could still swim in beans.
But, I do think they eventually come to the table. If they do.. you can only imagine what reaction prices are going to have.
Given how tight the US balance sheet is. Instead of saying "what if China doesn’t show up" you could start asking yourself "what if China shows up".
Daily Nov Chart:
Soybeans at a crucial spot here.
We closed just above the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally.
We need to hold here or it opens the door lower. Because a bounce here will let us know if this is simply a small standard correction, or something bigger.
We should know soon.
The big picture structure of this chart remains bullish as long as we hold $10.12. Realistically we could fall all the way down there and still be completely fine.
Next Target:
We had a sell signal two Fridays ago at the highs.
My next target is still going to be $10.82 as of now.
Targets don’t have to hit. They are there to let you know to de-risk if they do.
Weekly Chart:
I have no idea when or if we'll ever break above $10.80
But IF we do.. the upside in this market is at least another +50 cents higher.
We've been trapped in a small range for a year now.
Finding support right at those trade war highs.
Finding resistance right at the $10.80 resistance. Which was our lid from 2015 to 2018.
I also think we have found our long term lows. Last trade war was different than this one. Not only did we have a trade war, but Chinese demand was impacted by other factors such as swine fever.
Wheat
Demand continues to impress for the wheat market.
Just look at this chart that compares this year to past years from Karen Braun.
This year is shaping out to be a in a league of it's own.
Last week's export inspections were for the best since all the way back in 2013.
Last year the wheat market bottomed on August 27th.
Which is right around where our recent lows are.
Last year after the lows, we saw a +95 cent rally going into October.
The bottom came at $5.20, which is almost the exact same price we saw our recent bottom in August.
No we don’t have to follow the exact same path and probably won’t.
But seasonally the wheat market starts to catch bid here.
Demand is the best in years.
The funds have started to shift into buyers.
The seasonals have shifted friendly from here.
I just see wheat being undervalued here.
We recently alerted a buy signal for the wheat market. I do still like re-owning here. As the charts are still in tact.
Daily Chicago:
I still really like this chart.
We are breaking out of this falling wedge pattern which is seen as bullish (green lines).
If we can bust above the $5.35 level our next real resistance is going to be $5.55
Which is old support and claws back 38.2% of the June highs.
I am still eyeing the $5.66 to $5.78 level to de-risk heavier.
That gives back 50-61.8% of the June highs. It is also the top of this massive wedge.
Here is the continuous chart.
Roughly every 4 months for the past year or two, the wheat market has provided an opportunity.
If it happened again, it would put the next major opportunity perhaps sometime around late October or so.
This is just a pure guess, but I think there will be opportunities. They just might not happen as soon as any of us would like.
Daily KC Wheat:
Still sitting in a falling wedge pattern.
Current target is $5.59 to $5.72
Which gives back 50-61.8% of the June highs.
Cattle
Not much on cattle today. We still like keeping puts for downside protection in a seasonal time frame where we tend to struggle.
Oct Feeder:
We are currently rejecting the golden fib from the mid August rally & pullback (highlighted with the arrow).
If we bust above, next target is 376.375
If we start to break down, that blue box is our downside target.
I would be cautious here. As last week we nearly perfectly hit that golden fib before leaving the nasty candle last Wednesday.
Oct Live:
Also rejecting the golden fib.
If we make new highs, the target is 245.725
If we break down, blue box is the downside target.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
COULD THE BOTTOM BE IN?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
Overview: 0:00min
2024 vs 2025 Weather: 0:45min
Corn: 3:00min
Beans: 6:00min
Wheat: 9:20min
Cattle: 11:50min
Want to talk about your situation?
(605)295-3100
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Since your trial ended you no longer have access to every daily update and will not get our next sell signal. Take advantage of our Labor Day sale for full access.
Futures Prices Close
Overview
Decent action across the grains, as all opened lower and rallied off the early lows.
Meanwhile, the cattle market sees some follow through weakness following yesterday's ugly candles.
First notice day is tomorrow.
This has been a big reason for the weakness this week, especially in the corn market. This happens nearly every single contract month for the corn market if you go back and look.
Now that the natural sell pressure from first notice day is out of the way, maybe we can start to find some footing.
Bulls are arguing this dry finish could take the top end off of these crops, while corn & wheat demand continue to impress.
Bears are arguing that soybean demand is in jeopardy and we have a monster amount of corn supply.
Let's dive into the good stuff.
2024 vs 2025
On Tuesday, I showed how much drier August was for this year compared to last year.
But I wanted to take this one step further.
Last year, yield clearly took a hit with the dry finish.
Again, here is the August precip rankings for this year vs last year.
This year had a much drier August.
Especially out east. The eastern corn belt definitely has some concerns.
2025 - August Precip
2024 - August Precip
Neither this August or last year's August featured much heat at all.
2025 - Aug Low Temps
2024 - Aug Low Temps
If last August wasn’t as dry as this year, and didn’t feature any heat, where did the yield loss come from?
Here is precip and temp rankings for the first half of September last year.
It was one of the driest first halves of September on record for the central corn belt.
Meanwhile, it did also have some of the coolest nights.
2024 - Sep 1-15th Precip
2024 - Sep 1-15th Low Temps
Here is the next 10 days of precip.
It is suppose to remain dry in those same areas that have been dry all of August.
This growing season has seen some great things and some not so great things.
Let's look at the July precip & temp rankings for this year.
This July was one of the wettest on record. Especially for Iowa.
However, overnight temps were some of their hottest ever. Especially in the eastern corn belt, which is the area currently suffering from a dry August.
Overnight heat in July and August can be a silent killer. It's one of the things that can have the biggest impact on yield but doesn’t show up from the side of the road.
Do we have a record crop? Yes probably.
Do we have a 189 corn yield? I'd say probably not.
2025 - July Precip
2025 - July Low Temps
Last year August yield was 183.1 bpa.
Last year's final was 179.3 bpa.
Which is a -2.1% decrease.
Just for reference, if we saw that same decrease, it would put us at 184.8 bpa.
Today's Main Takeaways
Corn
Corn bounced right off the golden zone (which we will touch on).
The recent weakness was mostly first notice day.
Are the harvest lows in?
Last year, corn bottomed yesterday on August 27th.
The 5 year seasonal says the bottom is in.
As this one bottomed right about where we did back in mid-August.
The 10 year seasonal also says the bottom is in.
As this one bottoms right about now.
If we look at the month where Dec corn has posted it's lows the past 10 years.
50% of them occured in August or September.
This is seasonally when we bottom.
Is corn going to rally +50 cents in the next month? Doubtful.
At these levels, my bias leans higher long term towards next year and as we get into the acre battle.
But short term, it is still going to a battle to mustard a real major rally. I am talking anything north of $4.30 to $4.40.
The massive acres are going to be hard to overcome.
We have a record yield and record acres.
Higher corn prices is going to be a long process, because we do now have an extra +1 billion bushels of supply to chew through.
At the same time, I don’t think we spend much time below $4.00 if at all.
I think the blood shed is mostly over. But it isn’t time for a face melting rally either. If the lows are in, it's probably going to be more of a slow grind up.
It looks like the funds might finally be ready to stop selling this market. As they've been buying consistently for the first time since January.
Daily Dec Chart:
Corn perfectly bounced in that golden zone today.
The 50-61.8% retracements of this entire recent rally.
Good sign here. As that was the level we were looking for. That level was deep enough for a standard correction.
We also took out yesterday’s lows and closed right at yesterday's highs. Another good sign.
We still need to hold $4.01 to $4.04 or the next support is contract lows.
To the upside, if we take out $4.16 we could have a little room to run.
$4.16 is the 61.8% retracement up to the mid-July highs.
Which is exactly where we topped this recent rally at.
If we take out $4.16, I'd be confident the harvest low is in and odds would favor us heading higher.
I am not looking to de-risk unless we crawl into the $4.30 to $4.35 range. Which is where we have a ton of old support and resistance.
Here is a zoomed out chart of that support and resistance box.
Soybeans
The US and China are meeting in DC today or tomorrow but no one is expecting much to come of it.
Bears argue the problem is demand.
Which is valid. China still hasn’t bought any soybeans
However, US beans are cheaper than Brazil soybeans.
So you'd think that China would eventually come to the table. Why pay a premium?
Despite China having not bought any beans, one could argue soybean demand has actually been kind of good.
New crop soybean sales to everywhere except China and unknown destinations are the 2nd highest of all-time.
Only behind the actual 2018 trade war.
Demand to China is the only bad thing about soybean demand. The demand to everywhere else has been above average.
Here is a great chart from Karen Braun showing that.
Unlike corn, the loss of 2.5 million acres in the last USDA report completely shifted the balance sheet trajectory for beans.
If you just look at the balance sheet, you can’t help but have a friendly bias.
Disregarding demand concerns, this alone has the chance to spark an opportunity soybeans down the line.
Who knows if yield is 52 or 54.
Even if yield is 54, based on the current demand numbers, our carryout would still be lower than last year. This is soley due to less acres. That isn’t bearish.
A 52 yield would evaporate the carryout. Which would still be a record yield.
Based on the weather we saw in August, you have to question how big this crop really is at the end of the day.
Until China starts buying, our upside is probably limited.
However, we are one trade deal away from explosive potential in soybeans.
Daily Nov Chart:
Good action in soybeans today.
We bounced right at the 61.8% retracement level of the recent mini rally.
Bulls need to there. If we fail to hold $10.40, it could easily spark a leg lower.
If $10.40 fails, the downside target would be the $10.12 to $10.22 area. Which gives back 50-61.8% of the entire rally off of $9.80
Even if we fell to $10.12, the bullish structure of this chart would still be in place. That level is seen as the line in the sand for bullish bias to remain.
We had a sell signal last Friday.
The plan for our next sell signal is if we crawl up to the $10.80 to $10.82 range.
This is our target for a multitude of different reasons.
First reason is that $10.82 is gives us back exactly 50% of the highs from May 2024.
If we look at the contiuous chart, every single major rally over the last year has topped out at $10.80 on the front month contract.
Break above and there is incredible upside potential.
But until then.. it is seen as resistance and our next target.
Wheat
Good price action in the wheat market today.
Overall we continue to struggle despite phenomenal demand.
Wheat export sales are at historically strong levels.
The 10 year seasonal says we bottom here pretty soon within the next week or two.
Last year the wheat market bottomed on August 27th.
Other than strong demand, there isn’t anything new to update fundamentally.
Seasonally we bottom soon.
The charts are showing a little bit of reasons to be optimistic.
Overall I still think the wheat market has more upside than downside potential here.
Last Wednesday we had a buy signal for wheat. That signal still stands and I still see wheat at an area of value here.
Daily Chicago:
On the recent mini bounce, we rejected the 61.8% retracement of the recent sell off.
So the level to watch is $5.33
If we break above, it should spark a leg higher. If you notice, we rejected that level for 5 straight days. So it is big resistance.
Break above there and I'd be more confident saying the lows are in.
Here is the chart zoomed out.
We were sitting in a falling wedge pattern that we are potentially breaking out of.
This is seen as a bullish pattern.
Eyeing the blue box as a target.
Daily KC Wheat:
Despite posting new contract lows, KC wheat is also sitting in a falling wedge pattern.
Which is a bullish pattern.
Continous KC Wheat:
When the continuous chart rolled from Sep to Dec, it left a roll gap.
As Dec was trading at a premium to Sep wheat.
Today we almost perfectly filled that gap before bouncing and reversing higher.
This is something to be optimistic about.
If you look at last year, we saw a very similar thing happen.
When contracts rolled, we left a gap.
A few days later we filled the gap, before finding a bottom on August 26th.
Cattle
Jim Cramer talked about cattle yesterday on Mad Money.
If you know anything about Jim Cramer, he is notoriously known for being wrong.
There are several examples of where he says he likes something and it marks a top, or he says he hates something and it marks a bottom.
This doesn’t have anything to do with cattle fundamentally, but a lot of times when a market makes headlines like this it can mark a local top.
Basically, a boat is fullest before it tips.
Thoughts from Lauren Urbanczyk:
Lauren is our partner who specializes in cattle. This is what she had to say about the market:
Yesterday both live & feeder cattle made new contracts highs but closed well off their highs.
Open interest was significantly lower yesterday in live cattle. That is what we would describe as a blow off top. However, we've seen that a few times before.
We haven’t had two down days in a row since May. I can’t remember the last time we've seen three down days in a row. However, you can only get so high.
Beef has been up the past 2 weeks in preparation for Labor Day buying and demand. So we have to question if that demand will follow through after the holiday.
We also have August live & feeder cattle expiring. If we do get a trend change, it wouldn't be surprising to see that happen at contract expiration or option expiration. It is too early to confirm we've seen the highs, but we have all of the signs of it showing.
We also have month end approaching tomorrow. The funds have a very large long position. We could see some profit taking at the end of the month. Last month at month end, the board was down hard but then of course resumed higher a couple days later. We would potentially expect weakness tomorrow with the month end. Will that be enough to trigger two or three down days in a row? That is to be determined.
We recommend using caution up here. These prices are high enough that we would look at any and all risk management strategies, custom tailored to fit your operation.
We have been rolling up calls and rolling up puts this week to capture the equity in the market. If you have LRP on that is out of the money, we can add put spreads to protect those.
Give us a call if you want to talk or have questions.
Lauren: (979)-587-9252
Jeremey: (605)295-3100
Sep Feeder:
Yesterday we left a nasty looking candle.
We posted new highs, but then reversed hard and nearly gave back the entire days rally.
Then today we followed that up with weakness.
This price action is definitely a reason to be concerned in this market.
The real warning sign is going to be this upward channel. If we break the uptrend, it could spark a real leg lower. As this market has gone straight up for months.
If this truly was the local top, we could fall as far as that blue box. That is the downside target.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CATTLE MARGIN CALLS OVER?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Trend is your friend in cattle
Today’s candle makes pause in cattle
Cattle making news headlines
Ride it up and protect with short term puts
Margin eating guys alive in cattle. Utilize a strategy
Could see short term weakness in corn with first notice day
What to do with your basis contracts
Weather is taking bushels off
Don’t get backed into a corner if you know you will be forced to supply the market
If your beans go to China, capture the carry & don’t deliver. Basis could get worse
Do not give in and sell a horrible basis
Still like owning wheat down here
No one is going to sell corn after being forced to sell here
Made corn lows today a year ago
Ugly candle in cattle today (chart below audio)*
Areas we need to hold (charts below audio)*
Corn, beans & wheat chart below audio*
Listen to todays audio below
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CHART BREAKDOWNS
Dec Corn 🌽
We rejected right off the 61.8% level up to the mid-July highs as expected.
Now I am looking for us to test the golden zone of this entire mini rally.
That comes in at $4.01 to $4.04
We need to hold that area, or it opens the door to test those contract lows.
Whether we bounce there or not will tell us if this is just a pullback or part of a deepr correction.
To the upside, as I have been mentioning, we need to close above $4.16 to confirm we are headed higher. Until we do so, this entire rally is seen as a correctional bounce.
Nov Beans 🌱
Currently hovering above the golden zone retracement of this recent mini rally.
That comes in at $10.40 to $10.44
Ideally, we hold here. That would be a standard correction level.
If we break below the green box, it opens the door to test the bigger picture golden zone of this entire rally. Which comes in at $10.12 to $10.22 (blue box).
So $10.40 is an important spot to hold short term.
If we break above those recent highs, I think it opens to the door to test the $10.80-85 range. But need to hold this green box first.
Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾
This first chart is a close up so you can view the fib levels. Scroll to see the bigger picture chart.
But we rejected right off the 61.8% level up to those early August highs.
We are now testing the 61.8% retracement of this entire mini rally.
We need to hold here or it opens the door to test contract lows again.
To the upside, if we break above $5.33 that would be our green light that we are likely headed higher.
Here is the bigger picture view.
Still sitting in this massive wedge.
Eyeing the top of the wedge if we get a real upside move.
Feeder Cattle 🐮
Today we left a nasty candle.
We haven’t seen one of these in a long time after posting new highs.
This candle definitely give you a reason to be cautious here.
As this is the type of candle that often happens before a reversal.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
8/26/25
LEVELS BULLS NEED TO DEFEND. CAN WHEAT FIND LIFE?
8/25/25
CORN REJECTS TARGET. CROPS GETTING SMALLER?
8/21/25
SOYBEAN BREAKOUT & USDA VS CROP TOUR
8/20/25
BUY SIGNAL
8/20/25
NAVIGATING BASIS & CATTLE BULL RUN
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
CROP TOUR 182.7 YIELD & USING PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
AUDIO COMMENTARY
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Buying puts & rolling up in cattle. Let it run
Use proper risk management in cattle
Do not simply short cattle unless you’re prepared to deal with margin calls
EPA news pretty friendly. Bean oil rallying
Pro Farmer yield 182.7 for corn & 53 for beans
Tour is 500 million bushels lighter than USDA
Export sales off the charts strong
If we make a deal with China, that’s how you enter a bull market
Funds starting to buy corn & soybeans
Alerted soybean hedge alert & sell signal today
There is plenty of potential upside in soybeans
There has only been 4 days the soybean market closed above today’s high
Have a plan for basis. Some areas getting slaughtered on soybean basis
Buy signal still in tact for the wheat market
Like futures vs calls in the wheat market
If you want to re-own don’t chase
Interest rates supportive for money flow
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
If you missed today’s soybean sell signal here is a link.
Today’s Bean Sell Signal: CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
8/21/25
SOYBEAN BREAKOUT & USDA VS CROP TOUR
8/20/25
BUY SIGNAL
8/20/25
NAVIGATING BASIS & CATTLE BULL RUN
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
SOYBEAN SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
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We have been extremely patient on soybean sell signals this year as I see a pathway for higher prices. I still do.
That being said, I think this is a good spot to start de-risking after an +80 cent rally in 2 weeks.
I am not going overboard here. This is simply a start.
Essentially, incrementally scaling some sales or other risk management strategies as we head higher.
If you have a hedge account, we recommend some sort of protection orders be in place. For some of you, perhaps using a stop on futures below today’s low. For others purchasing an Oct or Nov put might make sense.
If you do not have a hedge account, simply making small incremental sales.
Make sure you have a plan for basis as well. If you have a weak basis, you may want to try and store the beans and pick up the carry. Perhaps get a USDA CCC loan to help with cash flow.
If you have questions, want to talk about different risk management strategies, or open a hedge account with us feel free to give us a call or a text as always.
As for why we are alerting this sell signal.
We are nearly at that $10.65 to $10.70 target.
I like managing some risk between here and $10.70
That 78.6% retracement to last year’s harvest high marked both of this year’s major tops in this market.
We have only closed above today’s high 4 DAYS this ENTIRE year.
If we take out $10.73 then the upside is wide open.
But for now, it makes sense to at least manage a little bit of risk here especially given how patient we’ve been.
We are nearly in the top 10% of prices we have seen all year long.
Each time we were in the top 10%, do you know how long we stayed there?
BOTH times lasted ONLY 2 days.
I think soybeans have tremendous upside. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be managing our risk. You never know what the market has in store.
My current plan for our next sell signal will come at $10.82
That is the 50% retracement up to those May 2024 highs.
After that it’s $11.10 (for now, but subject to change)
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
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Check Out Past Updates
8/21/25
SOYBEAN BREAKOUT & USDA VS CROP TOUR
8/20/25
BUY SIGNAL
8/20/25
NAVIGATING BASIS & CATTLE BULL RUN
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
SOYBEAN BREAKOUT & USDA VS CROP TOUR
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
Crop Tour vs USDA: 0:00min
Corn: 5:40min
Beans: 8:10min
Bean Target & Charts: 11:10min
Wheat: 14:15min
Cattle: 15:55min
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Futures Prices Close
Overview
Great day for the grains today as soybeans break above $10.50, rallying to 2-month highs. While the corn market sees some life, now trading higher than where we were before the bearish USDA report.
Today, we're going to go over the full crop tour vs USDA comparisons.
Then we'll get into some EPA news behind the bean rally, the phenomenal corn demand, and dive into the charts.
Yesterday we alerted a wheat buy signal, which we touch more on later.
If you followed our recent corn buy signal, we hit our short term target and up against resistance. So make sure you look at that as well.
Full USDA vs Crop Tour Comparison
This data shows just the 5 states we have the full crop tour numbers for.
So it does not include Minnesota and Iowa. But we know Iowa is going to have a monster crop.
But let's dive into the data.
What does this data tell us? Is the USDA too high on some states?
This first chart shows how both the crop tour and USDA see the crop changing year over year.
I think this is a better representation than straight up yield numbers, because the tour is historically way off on the actual yield numbers.
But this chart shows how much bigger or smaller the tour sees yield, compared to how much bigger or smaller the USDA sees yield.
Ohio: The USDA sees this crop as being way bigger than last year by +9.7%. Meanwhile, the crop tour only sees the crop being 1.3% bigger than last year. A massive difference.
South Dakota: The USDA only sees their crop +2.4% bigger than last year. However, the tour sees it as +10.1% bigger. But the caveat here is that the tour only covers a small corner of the state. Our next chart will go over why this huge number isn’t entirely accurate.
Indiana: The USDA has the crop +3.4% bigger, the tour has it +3.25% bigger. Pretty close numbers.
Nebraska: The USDA sees the crop +2.1% bigger, the crop tour had it +3.5% bigger. So the tour thinks it's slightly bigger than the USDA does.
Illinois: Here is where things get interesting. The USDA has Illinois corn up +1.8% vs last year. The tour actually has it down -2.25% vs last year. Which means the USDA is probably too optimistic.
"But the tour isn’t always accurate."
That is correct. Which is why they provide us with their historical differences.
How much they are usually off compared to the USDA.
Here is that data.
Usually the tour is too light on every state besides South Dakota and Minnestoa. For those two, the tour usually has the crop too big.
Which explains the big South Dakota number (again they only toured a small corner in the southeastern part of the state).
Since the tour is usually off, let's compile the data to see where the crops might actually be at.
Below is the USDA's yield, the crop tour's yield, and what yield would be if the tour missed by their historical average. (based on the chart above).
Ohio:
USDA: 196
Crop Tour: 185.69
Historical: 190.79 (+5.1)
South Dakota:
USDA: 168
Crop Tour: 174.18
Historical: 169.58 (-4.6)
Indiana:
USDA: 205
Crop Tour: 193.82
Historical: 198.32 (+4.5)
Nebraska:
USDA: 192
Crop Tour: 179.50
Historical: 193.6 (+14.1)
Illinois:
USDA: 221
Crop Tour: 199.57
Historical: 203.77 (+4.2)
The biggest takeaways from this?
The USDA is probably too high on their Illinois and Ohio estimates. Perhaps too high on Indiana as well. Basically the central/eastern corn belt.
They are probably relatively close on their Nebraska and South Dakota estimates.
What happens to production if our 2nd biggest producing state of Illinois is way too light vs the estimates?
Here is a visual of the numbers we just mentioned.
Dry August Finish
Here is the precip rankings for August.
It sure is a good thing that August whether doesn’t matter to production *insert sarcasm*
Nearly the entire corn belt has been dry this August.
Especially the eastern corn belt.
Which further ignites the idea that the USDA is probably too high on their eastern states yield estimates. Just like the crop tour data suggests.
To add on to this, the forecast for the next week is dry too.
With virtually zero rain across most of the corn belt.
August weather matters. We saw what happened last year.
Today's Main Takeaways
Corn
Amazing New Crop Demand:
New crop corn exports continue to shatter expectations.
Here are two great charts from Karen Braun to give you a visual on just how strong new crop corn demand has been.
Here is export sales through today's date vs other years.
We have already achieved 23% of the USDA 25/26 marketing year forecast.
By far the 2nd highest only behind the China led buying in 2021/22.
Since 2021/22 was led entirely by China.
Here is what new crop exports look like if you removed China.
Absolutely massive numbers.
Surpassing every single other year by a mile.
As we are nearly +60% higher than the next highest year of 2016/17.
It doesn’t look like export demand isn’t going anywhere.
Not much else on corn today, as it's usually the one we do the deepest dive on.
Currently just remaining patient.
We don’t have a reason to see a face melting rally tomorrow, as we do have an additional 1 billion bushels of supply to chew through.
We could go lower, but I don’t see a reason why we'd have to spend an extended amount of time below $4.00
We got our highest production print of the year we are going to see.
Demand is stellar.
Seasonally we carve out lows here within the next few weeks if we haven’t already.
Weekly Dec Chart:
First let's look at the weekly chart for Dec corn.
I actually like this chart a lot.
It makes me "hopeful" we've put in our lows. But still no confirmation.
Last week we printed a very nice candle, rallying +14 cents off the lows. Leaving a dragon fly, which is considered bullish if you get follow through to the upside.
Currently, we are seeing some follow through and are above last week's high which is a good sign.
Daily Dec Chart:
We are right up against resistance here. Between here and $4.16.
$4.11 is the 50% retracement to the mid-July highs.
$4.16 is the 61.8% retracement.
That is the golden zone.
If I had to guess, I think we probably reject that red box. (I would love to be wrong). But that's the area of decision for the market.
From a technical standpoint, this mini rally is seen as a corrective bounce unless we close above $4.16.
Which unfortunately means the door is still technically open for us to make new lows. But a close above $4.16 would make me more confident the bottom is truly in here and tell us this is more than just a bounce.
If you are still holding a long position from our buy signal, that red box has been my target to exit that signal.
Soybeans
Like corn, export sales were actually great for soybeans as well.
Today we saw soybean oil take off, which supported this rally.
This rally was driven by biofuel headlines.
Tomorrow, the EPA is expected to rule on a number of 195 pending small refinery exemption requests that date back as far as 2016.
Why are we rallying?
Reuters and others are claiming that small refineries will not get their exemptions.
If the EPA says no to most of these exemptions, small refineries will have to use more biofuel. Which is bullish.
If the EPA says yes, then it'll lead to less demand, which is bearish.
Insiders seem to think they'll say no.
As a result, soybean oil is soaring today.
However, Reuters has been notorious for putting out fake news on EPA headlines. So that's a risk.
There is also the chance for this to be a buy the rumor sell the fact event. Where we rally on the rumor, then sell off once it's confirmed. This happens all the time.
Meal Market:
Meal is once again rejecting this key spot we talked about earlier this week.
As we've rejected here twice.
The 61.8% retracement of this entire sell off.
Bust above, and it opens the door to more upside, which I think it should spark some short covering from the funds. Who are holding a record short position.
Doing so would be supportive for the bean market. A meal led rally. Which hasn’t happened in what feels like ages.
Here is the funds meal position for reference.
What could go wrong?
Meal spreads recently widened to extreme levels.
Spreads are now going parabolic. Straight up the last 3 days.
Going from a -12 carryout to now a +1 premium.
Erasing the entire year trading range in 3 days.
I'm not sure, but shorts could be starting to get squeezed.
Soybean Fundamentals:
As for soybean fundamentals, the biggest question mark is Chinese demand.
They still haven’t bought any new crop beans (that anyone knows of).
A slight concern, but still too early to say we aren’t going to have any demand for beans.
We saw the exact same thing happen the last 2 years and exports turned out fine.
Although we weren’t in the middle of a potential trade war.
If China starts buying soybeans or we ink an actual trade agreement with China, that would be by far the biggest bullish catalyst. But it's still an unknown.
The other biggest potential friendly factor is the US soybean balance sheet.
Since acres got cut drastically, the margin for error on soybean yield is non-existent.
Even if we see a a 54 bpa yield, our carryout is still tighter than last year.
Here is a chart I've shown before. Highlighting how carryout is effected by yield changes. As always, on this chart demand is left unchanged. Which won’t actually happen. If supply is cut, demand will be as well.
But the room for error is razor thin like I've been mentioning for months.
Daily Nov Chart:
The chart is starting to look really promising.
We are busting out of this bullish pennant pattern (in my last update I thought it was a potential bull flag, but it has developed into a pennant. Both are bullish).
Today we closed above last week's highs of $10.49
This was seen as a key level to break.
Us breaking above opens the door to run to the $10.65 to $10.70 range.
That is where I will be alerting a sell signal.
Here is another reason why I think we could see a leg higher.
$10.49 is the 61.8% retracement from contract lows up to the harvest highs from last year.
On last week's rally, that is exactly where we rejected.
Now that we closed above, the next fib level is the 78.6% level at $10.73
Which is exactly where our last two major tops in this market occured. Back in June and February.
Continuous Chart:
Yet here is another reason why I think we have room to run up to $10.65 or potentially higher like I've been talking about for a while.
This is the continuous chart. Which simply uses front month soybeans and currently uses Nov beans.
Every 3 months, prices have came up to the $10.65 to $10.80 range before making a major top.
It's been like clock work every 3 months.
It has been about 3 months since we posted our last major high in this box.
So I would like to think we get another run up towards that box.
Break above the box and the upside is wide open. But that hasn’t happened. Until then, it's seen as resistance.
Current Game Plan:
I have been extremely patient on soybean sell signals this year.
This is my current game plan for sell signals (subject to change).
Sale #1: $10.65-70
Sale #2: $10.82
Sale #3: $11.10
None of these have to happen. They are simply targets to let you know it's a good spot to layer off some risk if they hit.
$10.65-70 is that first target we talked about.
$10.82 is the 50% retracement up to the May 2024 highs.
$11.10 is the 61.8% retracement.
Top 25% of Prices:
We are now back in the top 25% of prices we have seen this year.
This is never a bad place to look at rewarding a rally and to take some risk off the table.
So if you need to make a sale, then by all means do so.
If you have to move something by harvest, I still like keeping downside protection.
Personally, I am waiting for another +10 cents to alert a full blown sell signal. Which would put us back in the top 10% of prices we've seen. If we get there.
Weekly Chart:
Just look at the weekly chart.
We have a clean breakout of this falling wedge pattern and are getting follow through.
Wheat
Yesterday we alerted a buy signal for the wheat market.
This was purely a technical driven buy signal based on the charts.
Here was the buy signal if you missed it: CLICK HERE
There isn’t much fresh fundamental news, so let's get into the charts and the buy signal.
Daily Chicago:
Yesterday we posted a bullish key reversal.
We posted new contract lows then closed above the prevoius days highs.
We are also sitting at the bottom of this massive wedge pattern.
We are also showing bullish RSI divergence.
Prices made new contract lows.
The RSI made a higher high and bounced.
When the RSI doesn’t follow prices, it create divergence.
In this case, it is a sign that downside momentum is getting weaker.
The MACD just crossed bullish for the first time since May.
Last time, it marked our lows and stayed bullish until June.
The MACD is basically just a mometum indicator.
It suggests momentum is shifting higher.
The stochastics were also completely bottomed out.
Now shifting higher.
If you follow Roach Ag, this indicator is how they identify their sell and buy signals.
When it's in the green box, it's a buy signal.
When it's in the red box, it's a sell signal.
It is a great tool, but I like to use several different moving parts in my technical analysis. As stochastics aren’t perfect. Because they can remain elevated or bottomed for an extended period of time.
Nonetheless, it was another reason to give me conviction here.
Daily KC Wheat:
KC wheat is also hovering right at the bottom of this massive wedge pattern.
Currently bouncing right off of it.
KC also posted bullish RSI divergence.
Prices made a lower low.
The RSI made a higher high.
Cattle
Very little to update on the cattle market.
It's getting harder to chart and come up with targets because every pullback is small and short lived.
So I apologize if my targets & analysis vary day to day, as I'm constantly seeing new stuff on the charts.
Feeders have not seen back to back red days in two months.
I like keeping puts on here for downside protection, because things could get nasty when and if we decide to get an actual correction. I prefer to stay away from futures.
Just look at this monthly chart. We haven’t seen a red month this year.
A massive +46% rally without a single red month.
Sep Feeder:
We tapped the golden fib from the most recent sell off.
The 161.8% level.
So a pullback here would make sense.
If not, our next level is going to be a tad over 364.
Still watching the bottom of this channel. If we break it, that is going to be our first sign of true weakness.
If that happens, our downside target is the blue box.
We are still showing bearish divergence.
This doesn’t mean we fall out of bed tomorrow.
It is simply a possible warning sign.
When this cattle market decides to pull back, it could be aggressive.
Oct Live:
Oct live cattle hit the golden fib from the July 31st sell off and rejected there.
So a pull back here makes sense as well.
If not, the next level is the 200% just shy of 239.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
8/20/25
BUY SIGNAL
8/20/25
NAVIGATING BASIS & CATTLE BULL RUN
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
BUY SIGNAL
WHEAT
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Here is extended access to our summer sale
2 weeks ago we had a buy signal for all of the grains.
Now altough wheat is roughly the same price as it was then, we are alerting another buy signal for the wheat market as I am seeing some optimistic things on the chart.
This signal is for anyone who took advantage of our sell signals earlier this year in Feb or simply sold wheat higher than we are today etc.
You can now re-own wheat at an area of value in my opinion.
This signal is based on the December Chicago wheat chart.
When we alert a buy or sell signal in one class of wheat, it is usually a green light in the other classes as well. As “typically” when one boat floats, they all float.
Since this signal is based on the Chicago chart, if you are a KC or MPLS grower it may make sense to re-own Chicago instead. Call us for details on this.
This does not mean everyone should just go and recklessly buy wheat. But for many, it might make sense.
Give us a call if you have questions or want to walk through specifics to see if this makes sense for you.
Our cell is: (605)295-3100
But let’s dive into the wheat chart.
First off, we are sitting at the bottom of this massive wedge pattern.
Today we also posted a bullish key reversal, as we took out yesterday’s lows then closed above yesterday’s highs.
We are also showing bullish RSI divergence.
This happens when the RSI makes a higher high, but prices make a lower low.
This just happened.
As wheat posted new contract lows, the RSI bounced and did not post a new low.
This is a sign that downside momentum is getting weaker.
The MACD indicator is on the verge of flipping bullish for the first time since May, where it stayed bullish until June.
It has not yet flipped bullish, but is very close.
The last time it happened marked those May lows (circled in green).
This indicator basically means that momentum is shifting higher.
The stochastics were completely bottomed out.
Now moving higher.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Could see more downside in cattle
Plenty downside risk in cattle. I like puts
Cash is still strong in cattle. Watch it
Trump wants China to buy soybeans
We don’t have enough beans to double our output to China
Tremendous upside if China deal made
Game plan for last weeks buy signal
Don’t let our buy signal turn into a loser
1st upside target hit in beans (chart below)*
Market has dialed in yield hopefully
Trump tweet hints ag will be included in deal
We will see record yields tomorrow. But will they be bigger than the market is already anticipating?
Keep cheap puts if you have to move anything in the next month or so
Should see interest rate cut in Sep
Pro farmer tour starts soon
USDA report could provide opportunities to re-own or opportunies for catch up sales
Soybean chart & USDA estimates below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
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Dont miss our next sell signal or future updates
SOYBEAN CHART
Last week we alerted our first buy signal in months.
We tapped the $9.80 downside target we had been talking about. We are now +30 cents higher.
On today’s rally we now hit that short term red target box.
The 50-61.8% retracement of the most recent sell off.
This box also lines up with the trendline resistance.
We don’t have to, but if we are going to see a rejection this would be the spot.
Break above $10.19 and we should see more upside. But until then, this area is seen as resistance and a corrective bounce. Should know very soon which it is.
If you missed our buy signal last week or our reasoning for it, it was based on a few things.
We hit the 100% fib extension from the 4th of July weekend sell off. Meaning this sell off equaled the exact same size as that one.
This was also trendline support. Everytime we tapped this it marked a bottom.
USDA ESTIMATES
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
StoneX Yield: 0:40min
Corn: 4:00min
Beans: 7:40min
Wheat: 10:40min
Cattle: 12:10min
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Overview
Ugly day across the board. The wheat and corn market continue to post new contract lows.
The wheat market is struggling to find anything for bulls to chew on.
Meanwhile, the corn market continues to price in record crops with more and more chatter of yields closer to 190 than 181.
Traders continue to point out concerns surrounding soybean demand.
Crop conditions yesterday showed corn ratings at 9-year highs (highest since 2016).
With the 3rd-best soybean ratings of the past decade.
StoneX - 188 Yield?
StoneX posted their customer yield survey yesterday. They showed:
Corn: 188.1
Beans: 53.6
A massive corn number.
Here is a visual on just how big of a number this is.
We have not beat trendline yield since 2018.
This would be the biggest move above trendline yield since 2016.
How accurate has StoneX been in the past?
They have actually been pretty accurate.
Compared to final yield, their August number has been closer than the USDA's August number the past 3 of 5 years.
The biggest miss was 2020. Both StoneX and the USDA missed big with the derechos etc.
Here is another table visual.
On average, they are 3.3 bpa too high.
If you exclude the big 2020 miss it is 1.4 bpa too high.
Now altough they are actually decently accurate, I do have a hard time believing we could see a 188 yield with all of the pollination issues, overnight heat, and in some areas too much rain.
Now that we have all of the July data. Here is how July's precip and overnight temps ranked in the last 133 years.
First is precip. You can’t tell me some areas of the central corn belt didn’t see too much rain.
Rain makes grain. But too much of anything isn’t good.
Iowa had 8-10 inches of rain in July. Average July rain is 3.5 inches.
Here is overnight heat.
The eastern corn belt especially was one of the warmest ever.
Given the crazy rain and overnight heat, you have to wonder if there is a chance that things aren’t quiet as good as advertised when boots hit the ground in September.
As yield estimates in August are mostly driven by satellite data. Not actually taken from being in the fields.
Satellite data does not capture pollination issues.
Upcoming Heat
The next 14 days are going to be hot for the corn belt.
According to Crop Prophet, corn production areas will be +4.4 degrees above normal temps while soybean production areas will be +4.1 degrees above normal.
I'm not so sure this is a great thing, especially for soybean production.
Sep Rate Cuts Odds Soar
The odds for rate cuts in September have soared the past few days.
We are now up to 83% odds for at least a 25 bps cut.
As I've pointed out countless times, this is a long term friendly factor for grains.
We tend to follow inflation higher.
Rate cuts lead to higher inflation and typically higher priced commodities.
Rate hikes lead to less inflation and typically cheaper commodities.
This could wind up marking those harvest lows as well. Similar to what we saw last year when the feds cut rates in Sep.
It just might give the funds a reason to be inclined to be want to be long this corn market.
Todays Main Takeaways
Corn
As has been the case for a while, there isn’t a real reason for corn to see a rally until harvest.
Demand has been phenomenonal.
We have the best new crop book of sales since 2021, which was entirely driven by China. In comparison we have not seen a single bushel of corn sold to China this year.
Chart from the Brock Report
But.. the market does not care.
It sees a massive crop. It will continue to price corn closer to a 2 billion bushel carryout until proven wrong.
Last year at this same time, we had a 2 billion bushel carryout. Our lows were $3.85 towards the end of August. So we could assume that is our absolute floor again this year.
The market is pricing in at least a +185 yield and a 2 billion bushel carryout. Just like last year. Hence why prices are the same as last year.
I don’t see how a move below last year's $3.85 lows could be justified.
Since the market is pricing in +185.. you have to ask yourself "what if" yield winds up closer to 180 instead of way above trendline.
It doesn’t seem entirely likely, but this crop isn’t in the bin. We still have no clue how widespread pollination issues are, how big of an impact too much rain had, how much damange the overnight heat caused.
IF yield did come in closer to 180.. this market is severely underpriced.
And we have already added all of this demand on top of this market.
Of course it's just a scenario, but it is a real possibility.
The expectations for this crop are massive. Probably too high. I mean what could go wrong?
On the other hand, if yield really is 188 then we are probably going to head lower.
If yield is 185 then we are probably fairly priced here.
Here is balance sheet breakdowns for a 181, 185, and 188 yield without any changes to demand.
181 = 1.66 billion carryout
185 = 2.0 billion carryout
188 = 2.27 billion carryout
*(Demand will naturally increase to offset increases in production)*
But you can see that the market is pricing in at least 185.
I showed this graphic all of July and why I thought we wouldn’t see our lows for the year until at least August.
Well we have now hit that seasonal time frame where we find our bottom more often than not between here and September.
In the past 10 years, our lowest prices for the year have came in August or September 6 times.
For the past 5 years, the lows have been in August or September 3 times.
Seasonals:
The 5 year seasonal has us bottoming right about here wihtin the next week or two.
The 10 year seasonal has us trickling down to $3.90 before finding a bottom late August to early September.
Regardless, both say we find a bottom within the next month or so.
Technicals:
We broke the golden fib extension box (50-61.8% of the size of the sell off after the 4th of July weekend).
The 1 to 1 move extension is $3.95
So it is looking like that is going to be our next stop.
That will be a good spot to look to re-own in my opinion.
As I do not think a sustained move below $4.00 will be justified.
Last year we had a much larger carryout and we only spent 30 days below $4.00
Soybeans
Fundamentals:
Soybeans still have plenty of growing season left. Most would agree that the corn crop overall looks better than the soybean crops right now.
The balance sheet is still tight with a 52.5 bpa yield and with the current demand numbers
Just look at how carryout changes based on yield (with no demand changes).
A 51 bpa yield evaporates our carryout and put it at the lowest in over a decade.
Meanwhile, a 53 bpa yield results in a carryout the same as last year.
So there just isn’t much wiggle room and US soybean situation is far from being burdensome as long as demand isn’t killed.
But demand is the issue the market sees.
Our new crop book of sales for soybeans is sitting at 20 year lows.
Because China has bought zero new crop beans.
Chart from Zaner Hedge
The market is basically surrounding the theory that "okay even if yield isn’t there.. losses to demand will offset the losses in production" resulting in a wash on the balance sheets.
It's a valid arguement and concern.
But at the same time, China will have to buy soybeans from the US at some point. They always do.
It's a little early to get all doomsday about bean demand.
We saw the exact same thing happen last year.
A slow start, only to eventually exceed expectations later on.
As for the supply side of things, the next two weeks don’t look ideal for the crop. Many places had way too much rain in July and didn’t give the crop a chance to breathe. So this soybean crop is far from being made. August is the make or break month.
August Seasonal:
Seasonally the start of August is weak.
So this price action isn’t surprising.
The last 2 years we found our bottom in the middle of August.
Technicals:
Nov $9.80 Support
I think $9.80 should offer some good support for Nov soybeans.
This is the trendline support.
It also happens to be the 1 to 1 move from the sell off following the 4th of July weekend.
Meaning this sell off equals the exact same as that one.
$9.80 is where bulls want to hold.
Possible Falling Wedge
We do also have a potential falling wedge pattern in place. Which is seen as bullish.
However, you need a breakout for confirmation.
Nov-24 vs Nov-25
I think $9.60 is our absolute floor in this soybean market.
Our lows last year were $9.60
Last year we had a carryout drastically larger than we do today.
Big Picture Chart
This market has been bouncing between $9.60 and $10.75 for over a year now.
$9.60 was the resistance during the trade war.
Which makes me further believe $9.60 is our absolute floor.
Wheat
Fundamentals:
Very little to update on the wheat market.
We continue to collapse despite fresh bearish news to drive us lower.
There is a reason they say "trade wheat, sleep on the street".
Winter wheat harvest is wrapping up, so you'd think we'd see less harvest pressure.
But at the same time there just isn’t a catalyst that makes the funds want to stop being short this market.
I don’t when the blood shed will stop. But what I do know is that I have zero interest in selling wheat down here. So I am just going to be patient and wait for that opportunity.
Technicals:
Sep Chicago
The Sep Chicago chart looks extremely ugly.
We broke the bottom of that black downward channel.
Now our last support is this blue trendline.
Continuous Chicago
On the continuous chart, we are now right at our last line of support.
We've bounced out of here everytime for over a year.
If we break below here, we'll simply be trying to catch a falling knife.
Sep KC
New contract lows for KC.
However, we do have a massive potential falling wedge pattern setting up. Which is a bullish pattern in nature.
We are about at the bottom of the wedge.
Continuous KC (Weekly Chart)
On the continuous KC chart, also sitting right at our last line of support.
I'd like to think we find a bottom here soon.
This was our resistance from 2019 to 2020. It is now support.
Cattle
On the charts it looks like cattle is poised to post a new high.
However, cattle has front month contracts breaking out to new highs. While some of the more liquid months are still below last week's highs.
This is an instance where you could easily see a bull trap. With one month breaking out and others failing to breakout.
The seasonals still bring caution. As they point lower heading into August.
As a matter of fact, from August 1st through September 5th, cattle has traded lower in the past 4 of 5 years and 9 of the last 10 years.
The only year it did not was 2023 (marked as 2024 as this data is Jan feeders)
Below is the data results if you took a short position on August 1st and held it through September 5th.
Could this market just keep soaring? Absolutely.
But we think it makes sense to keep hedges on.
With the funds wanting to push this market, we think it makes the most sense to utilize puts rather than straight futures.
Puts you can only lose the money you put up. Futures is where you can run into margin calls etc. and is far more risky if this market decides it wants to keep running.
If you want to discuss your situation and get a specific hedge recommendation, give us a call or text:
Jeremey: (605)295-3100
Lauren: (979)587-9252
For those of you that have straight short futures, if we make a new high in the the month you sold, that might be a reason to cover.
Again it really depends on your situation, so reach out with questions.
Volatility expands at tops and bottoms. We have record high volatility for the year right now.
If you need help managing current positions reach out and we can look at scenarios.
Technicals:
For Sep Feeder, we broke above the 61.8% retracement of the recent sell off so it looks like we will probably post a new high.
That 2nd target is the 200% extension of the June rally a little over 343.
If we post a new high, it looks like we might print bearish RSI divergence.
Where prices make new highs, but the RSI does not.
That is basically a warning sign that upside momentum is getting weak.
Another reason to be cautious up here.
Aug live cattle did not close above the 61.8% retracement of the recent sell off.
If they do, there is a good chance we go test the highs.
That 2nd target is the 200% extension of the June rally.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
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Check Out Past Updates
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
MARKET UPDATE
You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.
Timestamps for video:
Cattle Signal: 0:00min
Corn: 2:55min
Beans: 7:00min
Wheat: 10:00min
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Futures Prices Close
Overview
Soybeans continue to struggle with non-threatening weather and concerns surrounding demand.
While the corn & wheat market traded slightly higher after the wheat market posted fresh contract lows earlier in the day.
The cattle market saw a blood bath today following the recent rally.
Cattle Signal - Why?
This morning we alerted a hedge alert & sell signal for cattle. Why?
There are a few reasons why I am being cautious here in the cattle market.
(Link to this mornings alert: CLICK HERE)
1) Tariff headlines
President Trump says the US and Mexico agreed to extend their tariff arrangement for another 90 days.
Does this mean we could open the border back up to the live cattle imports too?
Who knows. But it's a risk.
2) Targets & Charts
Today's lower action could easily just simply be end of month profit taking. We had one of the largest monthly rallies ever. So traders taking profit at the end of the month makes sense.
But we did hit big spots on the charts and left key reversals lower. So I think it makes sense to de-risk here.
Sep Feeder Chart 🐮
For targets we used a fib extension.
Meaning we took the May lows, up to the June highs, then back down to June lows. Then projected the next move off that June low.
The most common fib level is the 161.8% level. Meaning this rally equals 161.8% of the size of the June rally when you take it off those June lows.
(So the blue dotted lines mark where we measured, the red dotted line is the 161.8% move off those June lows)
Hopefully that makes sense.
We hit the 161.8% which was our first target. The 2nd target was the 200% which we did not quiet hit.
We also closed below yesterday’s lows after posting contract highs today. That is known as a key reversal lower.
Something that could indicate a potential top in a market where you are simply throwing darts into the ocean trying to time the top.
We've seen this happen several times though. Usually a reversal is confirmed if you follow it up the next day.
If this was truly the top, a standard correction would be 50-61.8% of this entire rally (Green box at 315-320).
Oct Live 🐮
We almost exactly tapped that target box.
The blue line was the 200% retracement of the June rally.
Meaning this was simply 200% of that June rally.
3) Seasonals
Seasonally we start to head lower from here as well.
If this happens, it doesn’t mean the bull run is over or anything like that.
We could simply get a correction before finding a bottom in the fall, then make all-time highs later again.
But seasonally, we get a decent correction as we approach the latter part of grilling season.
4) Record Long Funds
The funds are record long.
Do I think they just puke out this entire position without a fight? Absolutely not.
But there is definitely risk they take some profit here.
Todays Main Takeaways
Corn
We have zero reason to rally majorly here until closer to harvest or until we get a bullish catalyst.
At the same time, a significant sustained move below $4 would not be justified.
I am going to continue to show this chart as I think it's the best argument as to why corn shouldn’t stay below $4 for long if it happens.
Our carryout is -17% tighter than it was last year at this time.
Our absolute lows last year in Dec-24 corn were $3.85 and we only spent about a month below $4.00
With the market already pricing in a +185 yield and a carryout similar to last year at this time, I'd assume our absolute floor this year is probably also right about there. Maybe a little higher.
Seasonals:
Here is the 5 and 10 year seasonals.
The 5 year says the lows are pretty much in.
The 10 year says we find lows at $3.90 towards the end of August.
Too Much Rain?:
Yield is up in the air. So we aren’t going to spend much time there today. I'm not an agronomist.
We've went over night temps and how we've seen the warmest nights on record.
I mean just look at this chart that shows the average daily lows for central Illinois in July.
Chart from Allendale
But we've also had an insane amount of rain. Some say we've seen too much.
Here is two maps from Crop Prophet.
The first is the last 14 days of rain.
The 2nd is expected change in yield the past 14 days.
Rain makes grain, but they think too much rain and humidity (aka hot nights) has made a slight negative impact.
Des Moines Iowa has received around 10 inches of rain month to date. Normal rain for this date period is 3.6 inches.
Too much of anything can’t be great for production.
Amazing Export Demand:
New crop exports are better than they were last year at this time.
They are the best since 2021.
Chart from Allendale
Here is another year by year visual from the Brock Report.
But if you remember, exports in 2021 were entirely led by China.
This year we have not sold a single bushel to China.
That is how impressive export demand has been.
Feds & Interest Rates:
Yesterday the Feds left interest rates unchanged as expected.
Yesterday there was a 60% chance for rate cuts in September.
Today there is a 40% chance for cuts in September.
However, Trump flat out said that the feds will cut rates in September.
If they do cut rates in September, I think we see a similar thing happen like last year.
Where the funds wait until they are confident rates are going to be cut, then they can get behind this corn market.
Why?
Lower rates & higher inflation (rate cuts) supports higher priced commodities.
If you want to lower inflation (aka rate hikes) you need cheaper commodities.
I've shown this chart a thousand times, but it speaks for itself.
Technicals:
We continue to hold this golden fib box. This is a big spot.
(This box equals 50-61.8% of the size of the sell off we saw after the 4th of July weekend)
This is where the market makes a decision. We either get a bounce or we go to the 1 to 1 move at $3.95.
(Meaning this sell off would equal 100% of the size of the 4th of July one).
If we do not hold here, our next stop is probably $3.95.
If we do go to $3.95, my pure speculative thought process is that would be our harvest lows sometime here in the next month. Our lows last year were $3.85 on August 26th.
Soybeans
Fundamentals:
Soybeans continue to struggle as weather doesn’t look threatening and traders continue to worry about demand to China.
Again, China accounts for a massive portion of total US bean demand. Without them we would swim in beans.
If we look at the current book of new crop soybean sales, I can see the concern.
They are the lowest in 20 years for this time of year.
Chart from Allendale
However, we are just behind last year.
Last year people had the same exact concern.
We started really slow. Yet we exceeded the USDA's projections.
But this is a different story than year, because who knows how the China & Trump situation will play out.
*(Here is old crop exports vs USDA projections)
Chart from Robert McClure on X
Here is a good thought from Angie Setzer that pretty much sums it up.
Last year everyone was screaming soybeans were going to $8.00 and that we had no demand.
Room for Error:
As long as we don’t kill demand, I think there will still be an opportunity in soybeans at some point.
It might take longer than any of us woud like.
But the US soybean balance sheet still doesn’t have any room for error.
Even with a 53 bpa yield, our carryout is still tighter than last year (if demand remains unchanged from here).
Of course there is always the risk for 53-54 bpa, but at the same time we still have never seen 52 bpa.
*(Below is how yield impacts carryout with no demand changes & past soybean yield)
August Seasonal:
Something to note is that seasonally August is usually where soybeans struggle.
If we look at this seasonal from the last two years, both years fell into the early part of August before carving out lows in the middle of August.
How low could we go?
If demand gets killed from China, a lot lower.
If not, our lows last year in Nov-24 were $9.60 on August 14th.
Our lows for Nov-25 back in December were also $9.60
As long as demand doesn’t disappear, what argument would there be for soybeans to take out Nov-24's lows?
Our carryout is -30% tighter than it was last year.
I showed this the other day, but it lines up with the thought process from the last chart.
Our resistance during the trade was $9.60
That is where we bounced last August.
Old resistance is new supoort.
Barring a full blown trade war, I'd like to think we found our long term floor at $9.60
Technicals:
I have been mentioning that is Nov beans failed to hold $10.00 we had a gap of air lower.
Well.. how low?
The black trendline comes in right around $9.80
If you were to take the 1 to 1 move we saw after the 4th of July weekend (marked with the arrow) that brings you right to $9.83 as well.
So that is the spot I am looking for. Hopefully we can find life there.
Wheat
Fundamentals:
There is still very little to update surrounding the wheat market as we battle contract lows and are in the time of year where there isn’t much news for bulls or bears to chew on.
I don’t think there is a reason for us to continuing falling apart drastically. But given there isn’t much new on the fundamentals let's look at the charts.
Technicals:
KC wheat continues to hold contract lows, as it has tested this level on 5 seprate occasions.
Meanwhille, Chicago wheat just posted a fresh low today.
What does this mean? It could be as simple as this is a potential bear trap in Chicago wheat.
Chicago wheat was at a +25 premium to KC. It is now at a -3 cent discount.
If we look here at KC wheat.
We continue to bounce right off those contract lows. Seems like good support.
Bulls want to hold here.
If we look at Chicago wheat, it doesn’t look too pretty.
As we posted new contract lows today.
However, like we mentioned, KC wheat continuing to hold the support has all of the makings for a possible bear trap in Chicago here.
Regardless, I don’t have any interest selling wheat here anyways.
Here is another reason why I think wheat finds a bottom relatively soon.
We are right at this 17-month long support on the continuous contract.
We have bounced here every single time since 2023.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
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Opportunities will come. Be ready when they do.
Argy tax news pressures beans
EU trade deal & US dollar rally
Some warning signs in the cattle market
Funds still really long cattle if they want to exit
Could see corn making lows on August report
Don’t see crop getting bigger than perceived right now
Markets are simply trading massive crops
Overnight temps say we don’t have amazing pollination
Funds are trading these big yield numbers
Studies showing that we have a huge crop
If we don’t see this monster yield there is upside potential and we could see repeat of last year
Market might think demand is overstated, but shouldn’t
Path of least resistance is lower short term
Trump & China tariff pause
The market has built in all of this bearishness
What if the funds jump on the demand train long term?
Hearing some big pushes in wheat basis
Soybeans break $10.15 support. Opens door to $10.00 (chart below)*
Nearing cattle sell signal. Targets hit & showing bearish divergence (charts below audio)*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
CATTLE & SOYBEAN CHARTS
Aug Feeder 🐮
We hit that 2nd target. Which was 200% of the June rally.
I think this is a good spot to de-risk, altough we will be waiting to see if we get any follow up strength from Friday’s bullish report before alerting a full blown signal.
We are also showing bearish RSi divergence which has me even more cautious (scroll to view RSI divergence chart)*
Here is the bearish divergence.
Prices are making new highs.
The RSI is not.
This signals upside momentum is getting weaker. Basically it’s a potential warning sign.
Aug Live 🐮
We just missed that first target today by a hair. That target is 161.8% of the June rally.
Just like feeder, live cattle is showing bearish divergence. So we will probably be alerting a signal here soon.
(Scroll for RSI divergence chart)
Here is the RSI divergence.
Again when prices are making new highs but the RSI is not it is seen as a bearish indicator.
Nov Beans 🌱
We failed to hold $10.15
That was the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally.
So this could very well trigger another leg lower.
This opens up the door to $10. That is now the must hold level. If not, we have a gap of air to that black trendline.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25