TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
(We apologize for my voice in the audio today as I am under the weather)
Example of why we like to short term hedge with old crop vs new crop
Corn lower despite exports super strong for corn
Charts look due for short term pause
Corn still has a story
The dollar at multi-year lows
The dollar has dropped -10%, that means our products are cheaper globally
If yield gives us any issues, it will lead to substantial rally with the S&D situations
Don’t mind bean sales if you need to move something
Overall still remaining mostly patient for most
Charts running into resistance (charts below)*
Was this a short term top? (charts below)*
Next corn & bean targets (charts below)*
Listen to todays audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
CHARTS
May Corn 🌽
We are perfectly rejecting right at the 61.8% retracement of the sell off and that short term target box we had.
A short term correction here makes sense as we have been talking about since Thursday.
This was our short term target, but what about our next one?
It is subject to change, but right now I am eyeing $5.20
That is 161.8% of this recent rally we just saw.
This is the most common level for a 2nd move to have.
This is only if we put in a short term top here. If we blast higher tomorrow then this changes.
Dec Corn 🌽
Dec corn also perfectly hitting that 61.8% retracement and target box.
Again, a correction here makes sense.
This is the most common retracement level.
This was also the exact lows from Feb 2024 (old support is new resistance often times).
Next bigger target is $4.85
That is 161.8% of this recent rally, just like in May corn.
Again, this is only if we posted a local top here. If we go higher right away, then the target changes.
However, we did post a bearish candle today (scroll for more details on this).
Today we posted a bearish shooting star.
This often happens after a rally and is the sign of a local top.
Doesn’t have to be the local high here, but the signs are definitely there. So something to be cautious of.
(Below is a closer up view of Dec corn & an example of this pattern)
May Beans 🌱
We rejected right at the 200-day MA.
Like we mentioned last week, this is a major hurdle for bulls to climb.
We have not closed above this since 2023.
So on one hand, if we break above this.. it opens the door significantly higher.
On the other hand.. it makes sense to see this rally take a break here.
We rejected off the 200-day MA on the Feb highs as well as the highs from May 2024. A major resistance point.
As for targets, I have 2 I am eyeing.
1) The first is $10.99 which is 161.8% of this rally (just like in corn, this is only if we post a local top here. So subject to change).
This level also lines up with the 50% retracement up to those May 2024 highs.
2) Target 2 is $11.29, which is 200% of this rally and just happens to be the 61.8% retracement to those May 2024 highs.
Here is a simpler view of the 200-day MA.
It also happens to line up perfectly with the 61.8% retracement level up to those Feb highs.
Again, the most common retracement level.
Makes sense we’d take a breather here.
Like in Dec corn, we also posted a bearish shooting star in May beans.
A potential sign for some short term weakness.
Nov Beans 🌱
Just like in May beans, the biggest hurdle for bulls is the 200-day MA.
Once you break above that, that is the green light that we are probably going higher in my opinion.
May Chicago 🌾
Nothing new here.
Trapped in this channel still.
Not looking to do anything until the top.
May KC 🌾
Not much new here either.
Bulls want to hold this +7 month long support box.
Simply stuck in a massive range from the lows to the highs.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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