FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CATTLE MARGIN CALLS OVER?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Trend is your friend in cattle
Today’s candle makes pause in cattle
Cattle making news headlines
Ride it up and protect with short term puts
Margin eating guys alive in cattle. Utilize a strategy
Could see short term weakness in corn with first notice day
What to do with your basis contracts
Weather is taking bushels off
Don’t get backed into a corner if you know you will be forced to supply the market
If your beans go to China, capture the carry & don’t deliver. Basis could get worse
Do not give in and sell a horrible basis
Still like owning wheat down here
No one is going to sell corn after being forced to sell here
Made corn lows today a year ago
Ugly candle in cattle today (chart below audio)*
Areas we need to hold (charts below audio)*
Corn, beans & wheat chart below audio*
Listen to todays audio below
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CHART BREAKDOWNS
Dec Corn 🌽
We rejected right off the 61.8% level up to the mid-July highs as expected.
Now I am looking for us to test the golden zone of this entire mini rally.
That comes in at $4.01 to $4.04
We need to hold that area, or it opens the door to test those contract lows.
Whether we bounce there or not will tell us if this is just a pullback or part of a deepr correction.
To the upside, as I have been mentioning, we need to close above $4.16 to confirm we are headed higher. Until we do so, this entire rally is seen as a correctional bounce.
Nov Beans 🌱
Currently hovering above the golden zone retracement of this recent mini rally.
That comes in at $10.40 to $10.44
Ideally, we hold here. That would be a standard correction level.
If we break below the green box, it opens the door to test the bigger picture golden zone of this entire rally. Which comes in at $10.12 to $10.22 (blue box).
So $10.40 is an important spot to hold short term.
If we break above those recent highs, I think it opens to the door to test the $10.80-85 range. But need to hold this green box first.
Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾
This first chart is a close up so you can view the fib levels. Scroll to see the bigger picture chart.
But we rejected right off the 61.8% level up to those early August highs.
We are now testing the 61.8% retracement of this entire mini rally.
We need to hold here or it opens the door to test contract lows again.
To the upside, if we break above $5.33 that would be our green light that we are likely headed higher.
Here is the bigger picture view.
Still sitting in this massive wedge.
Eyeing the top of the wedge if we get a real upside move.
Feeder Cattle 🐮
Today we left a nasty candle.
We haven’t seen one of these in a long time after posting new highs.
This candle definitely give you a reason to be cautious here.
As this is the type of candle that often happens before a reversal.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
8/26/25
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8/25/25
CORN REJECTS TARGET. CROPS GETTING SMALLER?
8/21/25
SOYBEAN BREAKOUT & USDA VS CROP TOUR
8/20/25
BUY SIGNAL
8/20/25
NAVIGATING BASIS & CATTLE BULL RUN
8/19/25
CROP CONCERNS & DRY FINISH?
8/18/25
CROP TOURS STARTING
8/15/25
CORN BOUNCING DESPITE MONSTER SUPPLY. WILL CROP TOUR SHOW ISSUES?
8/14/25
HOW TIGHT IS SOYBEAN SITUATION?
8/13/25
UPCOMING CROP TOURS & NEXT BEAN TARGET
8/12/25
MAJOR USDA SHOCK. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
8/11/25
TRUMP SAYS CHINA NEEDS BEANS. USDA TOMORROW
8/8/25
CALM BEFORE USDA STORM & CATTLE LIMIT DOWN
8/7/25
USDA PREVIEW & MORE DETAILS ON BUY SIGNAL
8/6/25
CORN REVERSAL? RIDING CATTLE RUN BUT BEING DISIPLINED
8/5/25
188 CORN YIELD? AUGUST CATTLE CONCERNS?
8/4/25
NEW CORN LOWS & USDA NEXT WEEK
8/1/25
STOUT DEMAND & WET JULY
7/31/25
WHERE IS CORN & BEAN BOTTOM? WAS THAT CATTLE TOP?
7/31/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/30/25
ANY HOPE LEFT FOR GRAINS?
7/29/25
SEASONAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES
7/28/25
EXTREME BEARISHNESS PRICED INTO GRAINS. CATTLE WARNING SIGNS
7/25/25
NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
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1/3/25