MARKET UPDATE

You can scroll to read the usual update as well. As the written version is the exact same as the video.

Timestamps for video:
Corn: 0:00min
Soybeans: 4:10min
Wheat: 8:45min
Cattle: 11:00min

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Overview

Today we are simply going to be diving into the charts.

Our next targets & things to watch out for.

When we put out targets, it is not me saying prices will go there. Targets are simply there for you to know it is time to pull the trigger if we get there.

Charts In Order:

Corn (July & Dec)
Soybeans (July & Nov)
Wheat (KC & Chicago)
Cattle (Live & Feeder)

Corn

July Corn

We climbed back over $4.60. That is the level I wanted to see us clear to say we've put in a bottom for now.

However, we are now up against some solid resistance.

This box was our highs from last fall. It is also where we found support on the March sell off.

Old support is now resistance.

So this is a big spot for corn. If we can clear this, then my next target is going to be $4.79-89

That is a little bigger target than I am going to show you next in Dec corn. This is because we have alerted several sell signals in old crop corn well above where are today. Most of you are likely mostly sold or just sitting on gambling bushels.

July Corn: Inverted

Here is another reason why this current level is an important level.

This is an inverted chart (meaning flipped upside down to give a fresh new perspective).

We had a clear downtrend. On the April sell off, we busted above it. We are now currently back testing it. So a rejection would make sense as it's resistance (support on the inverted chart).

On the flip side, if we bust this trend, then we have plenty of room to run. Again a big level.

Dec Corn: Weekly

Dec corn is currently on pace for one of it's best weeks since June 2023.

We took out the last 3 weeks entire price action in just 3 days this week.

That is some impressive strength.

Dec Corn: Targets

Dec corn just posted it's first higher high since April (past highs circled in black).

We are currently hovering right inbetween the golden zone (50-61.8% retracements) up to the April highs from the recent lows.

We rejected right off the 61.8% level.

If we can break this level, our first target is going to be $4.60 to $4.62. That is where I will be looking to take off some risk.

Then if we can climb up to our 2nd and 3rd targets of $4.72 to $4.84 I will be looking to de-risk a lot heavier.

$4.72 is 2nd target as it reclaims 61.8% of the May 2024 highs.

$4.84 is the 3rd target as it reclaims 78.6% of the May 2024 highs.

Dec Corn: Why $4.60

$4.60 is our old highs from last fall.

It is also 61.8% of the Feb highs from the contract lows.

We posted our first higher highs since April and are above the 50% level, next level is 61.8% at $4.60

Dec Corn: Why $4.62

Here is the retracments from the April highs to the recent lows.

Again, you can see we are currently trapped between the 50-61.8% levels.

A break above this level, and $4.62 is the next level.

If you move these retracements to the Feb highs instead of the April highs, $4.62 also happens to give us back 61.8%.

So that is few reasons why $4.60 to $4.62 is our next target.

Soybeans

July Beans: Targets

We continue to bounce off the 200-day MA just like we want to see.

Next upside target remains the same as it has for months.

1st target: $11.04

That gives us back 50% of the May 2024 highs from the contract lows.

2nd target: $11.30-40 level

$11.36 gives back 61.8% of the May 2024 highs. $11.44 is our Feb lows.

We will have more precise details on the 2nd target when and if it comes.

Downside Risk: if we fail to hold the 200-day MA we will likely fall down into the blue box. That is our old key support and would happen to give back 50-61.8% of this entire rally since March.

Continuous Beans

Here is another reason why I think soybeans could see some upside.

We broke this downtrend that had kept a lid on us for 3 years.

If we break above the recent highs, the next resistance on this chart will be our lows from Feb 2024 at $11.28

Which happens to line up with that 2nd target we just talked about in July beans.

July Beans: Inverted

This is another reason why that $11.00 mark is our next target.

This is one of my favorite soybean charts because of how simple it is.

When you flip soybeans upside down, it clearly looks like we want to test that $11.00 magnet once again.

We've tested it twice already. Clear bearish head and shoulders pattern.

If we can break $10.80 I would like to think there is nothing stopping us from getting to $11.00 minimum.

Nov Beans: Targets

1st target: $10.78-82

$10.82 claws back 50% of the May 2024 highs.

2nd target: $11.11

That would claw back 61.8% of the May highs. It also happens to be those lows from Feb 2024.

Nov Beans: Significance of 200-Day MA

We continue to bounce right off that 200-day MA which is exactly what bulls want to see.

It marked our highs in May last year and Feb this year.

That big of resistance should offer great support.

That is the must hold level moving forward.

Being above the 200-day for the first time since 2023 is a very positive sign and indicates our trend might be shifting higher for the first time.

July & Nov Beans: Inverse Head & Shoulders

I have been showing you these patterns since February.

We still have very clear bullish inverse head & shoulders patterns in both July and Nov beans.

Nov beans look more bullish than July beans, as Nov is attempting to break above it's neckline. Where as July still has a long ways to go.

Breaking above the neckline typically confirms more upside. Nov beans are extremely close to doing so but not yet.

The implied move for July is over $12 and is $11.80 for Nov.

I am not trying to get you all bulled up, as the implied moves don’t seem that likely and would take some outside factors to make happen. But if we did ever climb up to those levels, the implied moves would be a good indication of where to take risk off if we happened to get some major rally.

Wheat

July Wheat

We posted our first higher high since all the way back in February.

That is a good sign.

Currently rejecting the 38.2% retracement up to those Feb highs from the recent lows.

If we can break above this level, our first target to de-risk is $5.70 to $5.85

Which is 50-61.8% of the Feb highs.

2nd bigger picture target would be the top of this downward channel that marked our Oct 2024 highs and recent Feb highs.

Continuous Chicago Wheat

We held this support for over a year.

We bounced exactly where we needed to avoid catching a falling knife.

July KC Wheat

KC is currently backtesting it's old support trendline.

We need to break above this to confirm more upside.

Old support is now resistance.

Our first target to de-risk is $5.76 to $5.94 (50-61.8% of the Feb highs).

Weekly KC Wheat: Morning Star

We are forming a potential morningstar pattern on the weekly chart.

This is a bullish pattern that can sometimes indicate a reversal.

Continuous KC Wheat

Those recent lows just happened to be our old resistance from 2019-2020.

Bulls are hoping that can be our new floor moving forward.

Cattle

August Live Cattle

We will possibly be alerting a sell signal in cattle tomorrow depending on what the price action looks like.

For starters, corrections usually happen in 3 moves. A down, B up, C down.

So this could possibly just be that B wave relief bounce before heading lower.

If we continue higher, the golden fib extension of the 184-204 rally is 216.375

If that was indeed our highs, we could easily fall down to the 199-196 range. As that would be the golden zone of the big rally.

Continuous Live Cattle: Gap Filled

This is why we should know tomorrow whether it's time to alert a sell signal.

The continuous chart left a gap lower when the contracts changed (due to an inverse in the market).

Gaps can act as magnets. We have now filled that gap lower exactly.

So we want to know if the market simply wanted to fill that gap before heading lower or if the market wants to keep running.

We either fail right here or probably continue higher. Should know really soon.