AUDIO COMMENTARY

Don’t mind hedging cattle
Use puts not futures in cattle
Could see cattle running little higher
Weather pretty much ideal
No trade deal with China or India
If we are +185 we are fairly priced
Corn yield isn’t determined yet with tassle etc
Big variables not yet known
Still +/-5% production swing potential
Think we will spend more time above $4 than below $4 in corn
Some pockets will swim in corn. Don’t bring it to the market
Getting wiggle room in basis
Haven’t had friendly cards in years
Interest rate cuts are coming
Bushels that you have to move, be proactive
KC gaining on Chicago wheat today
No interest selling wheat at these levels
Soybean next support $9.80 (chart below)*
Appraoching cattle targets (chart below)*

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CATTLE TARGETS & BEAN SUPPORT

Sep Feeder Target 🐮 🎯

We broke above the 161.8% fib extension level from the June rally and correction (marked with dotted lines).

Orginally that was my target to de-risk, but given how strong the report was Friday our target is going to be 343 ish.

That is the 200% extension.

I would be surprised to see us go much higher than that before getting at least a pullback. But possible.

Sep Feeder RSI 🐮

Last week I mentioned we were showing bearish divergence as the prices we making new highs but the RSI was not.

Gladly we negated that.

The RSI did now post new highs and is no longer showing divergence.

However, the RSI is getting pretty overextended.

I would like to think we have a little more room to run to those targets, but a pullback should be coming soon.

Oct Live Target 🐮 🎯

We have a small range for a target here.

We nearly tapped the 200% retracement of the June rally today (blue lines).

Which is at 230.725

However, the 200% fib extension (marked with the black dotted lines and red target line) sits at 233.600

The blue target measures just the June rally. The red target measures the June rally and correction, and projects the target off the June lows. Hopefully that makes sense.

Regardless, this green box is a good area to look to de-risk. As I do not see us going beyond that red line too far before at least getting a small pullback.

Oct Live RSI 🐮

Just like feeder, the RSI is no longer showing bearish divergence but is getting overextended.

Simply means we are overbought and will likely see at least a pullback soon.

Nov Beans Next Support 🌱

We broke below $10.00

Not a good look. As we have a gap of air lower down to that black trendline.

This trendline also happens to line up almost perfectly if you were to calculate the 1 to 1 move from the early July sell off. Meaning this sell off would equal the exact same as that one.

So I am looking for $9.80 to find support.