NO REASON TO RALLY. NO REASON TO COLLAPSE
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Bullish cattle report
Could see cattle cool off soon
Crops are big but how big?
Market expects huge crops
No big trade deals made
Market will struggle with no trade deals and big crops
Grains could get cheaper but trade deals open the door to major long term upside
What’s your basis look like?
Basis negotiations
Lower interest rates make the funds want to get back into these markets
Soybeans tight without record crop
If soybeans are short on production or if we strike a deal with China they have all the upside in the world
There is a risk nothing happens with China and beans get substantially cheaper
Don’t put yourself in a corner
Trend is still lower for now
Don’t have a reason to absolutely tank
Beans in golden zone (chart below)*
Cattle targets below audio (chart below)*
Cattle showing bearish divergence (chart below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
CATTLE TARGETS & SOYBEAN CHART
Nov Beans 🌱
First beans. We bounced right at that 61.8% retracement of the recent rally.
That is our must hold spot short term, as if we break below we probably drop to the blue box at $10.00
This is the most common place for a correction to end.
A bounce or break here will confirm if this is simply a correction or is something bigger. As this is the golden zone. It is where the market is forced to make a decision.
We need to hold this $10.15 level to keep the bull flag pattern valid (check next chart)
Here is the bull flag.
Need to hold $10.15 to keep it valid.
Need a break above the flag for confirmation of higher prices.
Implied move brings us back to those June highs.
Aug Feeder 🐮
Approaching that 200% level of the June rally.
Meaning this target equals 200% of that rally.
161.8% is more common, but we blasted past it. Making the 200% our next target.
If it hits, I think this is a very good spot to take risk off the table.
This target lines up very nicely with our live cattle target as well (chart below)
Target: 335
Aug Live 🐮
Unlike feeder, live cattle never hit the 161.8% level of the June rally.
So that is our target.
This is known as the golden fib.
A very common place for a rally to correct.
I like de-risking there.
Target: 229
Cattle Bearish Divergence 🐮
We are showing bearish divergence on the RSI in both live and feeder.
This happens when the price makes a higher high, but the RSI does not make a new high.
It signals that upside strength is getting weaker and could be due for a correction soon.
It does not have to happen immediately. It is basically a warning sign.
So my current thought process is we hit those targets above before correcting. As today’s cattle reports were bullish.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
7/24/25
CORN DEMAND OVERSTATED? CATTLE CLOSE TO TOP?
7/23/25
JAPAN DEAL NOT ENOUGH
7/22/25
CROP RATINGS MATTER?
7/21/25
RAIN MAKES GRAIN
7/18/25
OVERNIGHT HEAT & ROOM FOR ERROR
7/17/25
POOR CORN EXPORTS MATTER? REWARD BEAN BOUNCE?
7/16/25
ARE CORN & BEANS UNDERVALUED OR NOT?
7/15/25
NEGATIVE NEWS POSITIVE ACTION IN GRAINS
7/14/25
DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
7/11/25
USDA FRIENDLY CORN. MARKET DOESN’T CARE
7/10/25
JULY USDA OUT TOMORROW
7/10/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
7/9/25
MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
7/8/25
MONSTER CORN YIELD..?
7/7/25
TRUMP PUMP & DUMP
7/3/25
CORN & BEANS REJECT KEY SPOT. TRUMP SPEAKS IN IOWA
7/2/25
TRADE DEALS? BEANS RALLY AT GOLDEN ZONE
7/1/25
NOW WHAT FOR GRAINS?
6/30/25
BORING USDA. DIDN’T SAY HAVE TO GO LOWER
6/30/25
USDA NUMBERS
6/27/25
ALL EYES ON MONDAY
6/26/25
FIREWORKS OR BLOOD BATH MONDAY?
6/25/25
GRAINS COLLAPSING AHEAD OF JUNE REPORT
6/24/25
CORN CONTINUES SELL OFF. MAJOR USDA REPORT COMING
6/23/25
CORN CAN GO LOWER, BUT NOT FOR FOREVER
6/20/25
WHO SHOULD REWARD THE WHEAT & SOYBEAN RALLY?
6/18/25
COMPLETE CHART BREAKDOWNS
6/17/25
SOYBEANS CONTINUE BREAKOUT. NEARING SELL SIGNAL
6/16/25
CORN HAMMERED. EPA GAME CHANGER IN BEANS?
6/13/25
SOYBEANS RALLY, CHARTS, BALANCE SHEETS & MORE
6/12/25
USDA NON-EVENT. WHAT’S NEXT?
6/11/25
DIVERGENCE & SEASONAL SELL OFF?
6/10/25
BEING PATIENT VS BALANCING YOUR RISK
6/9/25
WHAT IF WE DON’T GET A WEATHER SCARE?
6/5/25
CORN & BEANS HOLDING CRUCIAL SPOTS
6/5/25
CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
6/4/25
HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISIONS
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25