MARKET SEES RECORD CROPS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
No real news on trade deals
Market is looking for something with China
Market trading unknown policies and weather, weather is not a concern
Plenty of talk of +185 corn yield
USDA expected to lower old crop carryout once again with a bump to exports. If feed number doesn’t drop then balance sheet gets tighter
USDA hasn’t raised yield in July in 20 years
Demand isn’t slowing down
What if China starts buying corn?
Lower we go, less incentive to grow more, the more demand we create
How big the crop is is completely unknown
Until something changes the funds mind, the path of least resistance is lower
As for marketing, trying to hang on as best as possible
We don’t have room for a non-record crop
If you do not have storage you have to be proactive
The biggest risk is the trade deals go sideways and we kill our bean demand with China or corn demand with Mexico
These low prices will “eventually” cure themselves
Everything on the demand side is super friendly
Most years go straight down after 4th of July, but the market hasn’t followed seasonals last few years
Being forced to sell vs not being forced to
Beans break big support (chart below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
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Before your trial ends.. make sure you take advantage of the offer
SOYBEAN CHART
Nov Beans 🌱
We broke below the 61.8% retracment level from the June highs to the April lows.
This is not a great look.
Need to reverse here soon and get back above that level or there is a chance we make our way to the 78.6% level which sits at $9.93
A big gap of air lower sits below here.
Sep Beans 🌱
Same situation as Nov.
We broke the 61.8% level.
Next stop could very easily be $9.90 unless we reverse out of here fast.
After that the next support would be $9.69 if $9.90 does not hold.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
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Hedge Account
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