GRAINS FINALLY FINDING MOMENTUM?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Great follow ups on the charts
Some possible signs of a bottom in corn
Wheat chart looks positive (chart below)*
Soybean momentum? (chart below)*
Crop conditions will probably be working against us as they shouldn’t show big decline
Forecasts for later in the month hot & dry
Iowa has some decent moisture deficit
Will the funds have a reason to cover?
War usually hasn’t led to a rally in a while
China and Trump scheduled a meeting
We need to raise a big crop to not have to ration demand lower
Trade deals & weaker dollar could spark more demand
Feels good to see old crop corn firm against new
When charts open up & funds are short can spark upside
Waiting to see if this momentum can gain
Funds short large amount of corn
If we don’t raise record crops, demand will have to be trimmed. To trim demand prices have to go up
2026 sales or hedge strategies in corn market?
Highly doubt weather scare will do material damage
Putting grain on DP is a bad decision
DP can cost a farmer a lot of money
Time to consider re-owning not puke selling
Corn RSI divergence has marked many bottoms. Will this time be the same? (Chart below)
Full chart breakdowns below audio*
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CHARTS
July Corn 🌽
The last 2 times corn showed bullish divergence it marked a bottom.
Will this time be different?
Bullish divergence = prices make new low but RSI does not
Bearish divergence = prices make new high but RSI does (happened in Feb)
July corn bouncing right at that golden fib extension.
If you do not understand what this fib extension means and why it is important check out yesterday’s udpate where I broke it down as best as I could: CLICK HERE
Essentially, this box equals 50-61.8% of the size of the April sell off.
Meaning this current sell off, equals 50-61.8% of the sell off we saw in April.
It is the most common spot to bounce and seen as a decision point in the market. Great sign we are bouncing here.
The stochastics are also bottomed out and now moving higher.
These have marked plenty of lows in the past.
Dec Corn 🌽
Just like July, we bounced right inside that golden fib extension.
That box is 50-61.8% of the size of the April sell off.
It is very friendly that we bounced there. As that was seen as a must hold level.
First level to slightly de-risk is going to be $4.60-62
That was old resistance back in fall. It also gives back 78.6% of the April high.
July Beans 🌱
We bounced right where we have been saying we should.
In the golden zone retracement (50-61.8%) of the May highs down to the April lows.
This box is seen as a decision point in the market.
We either bounce, or fall apart.
This level is the most common spot for a correction to end.
Since we bounced, it signals we should continue higher.
First target is $11.04 which claws back 50% of the May 2024 highs.
(Side note: we are also back above all major moving averages. Friendly sign)
We are very close to posting our first golden cross since 2023.
When the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA, it signals the new long term trend is now higher. Not lower like it has been for years.
This is the MACD indicator.
When the blue crosses above the orange line, it signals bullish momentum might be coming.
It is about to cross bullish.
It could signal that soybeans are about to have some upside momentum.
Last 2 times it happened, it resutled in a nice rally.
Nov Beans 🌱
Bounced right off the golden zone.
Upside target is still $10.80-82
Which is 50% of the May 2024 highs.
Chicago July 🌾
We closed right at the 38.2% retracement level to the Feb highs. Which is right where we rejected at a few weeks ago.
This is a big level.
We either reject here, or likely go test $5.70 next. Which is the next retracement level (50%)
Target to de-risk is $5.70-5.85 (50-61.8% of the Feb highs)
We are also trapped in a massive downward channel.
My 2nd target is going to be the top of this channel if we somehow get there.
That comes in right around $6.00
July KC 🌾
We are on the verge of breaking above this neckline from the inverse head & shoulders pattern.
If we can do so, it typically results in more upside.
Implied move is $5.95
If just broke above this old support trendline that was now resistance.
So that could result in more upside. But I would like another push higher to confirm.
Still waiting for $5.76 to $5.95 to de-risk. Which is 50-61.8% of the Feb highs.
Coincidentally, $5.95 also the implied move from the inverse head & shoulders.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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