HOW UNKNOWNS IMPACT MARKETING DECISION
AUDIO COMMENTARY
3rd session in a row corn well off the highs
When you close far off the highs in a downtrend it suggests buyers are trying to reverse a market (inverted hammer chart below)*
We are still the cheapest corn in the world
Drier forecasts last part of June
How the unknown of a weather scare impacts your marketing decisions
Old crop corn is still tight but doesn’t mean we have to go higher
One of most bullish things is US dollar. If it keeps dropping it will help demand even more
If you know you have to move something then you should add a floor
Usually only get a handful of days to hit the top of the market
If markets rip they will go hard & fast
Don’t give your grain away
If you’re comfortable its easy to ride the storm
Corn & soybeans both bouncing at key spots (charts below)*
Bullish divergence in corn (chart below)*
Listen to todays audio below
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CHARTS
July Corn 🌽
Corn is at a key spot. Bulls want to see a bounce in this box and finding a bottom here would make sense.
In yesterdays update I did a full explanation of a fib extension and how this downside target was calculated.
If you want to check out yesterdays udpate: CLICK HERE
I’ll do a shorter explanation in case you missed it:
Usually we use retracement levels to find a bottom, but since we made new lows, there is no low point to retrace to. So we have to use a fib extension instead.
A fib extension takes the first move (April sell off), and uses that move to project the 2nd move (current sell off).
The 2nd move most commonly equals 50-61.8% of the 1st move.
The 1st move was the sell off in April.
The 2nd move is this current sell off.
The box on the chart ($4.34-$4.27) is 50-61.8% of the first sell off. Which is why a bottom here would make sense.
If we fail to hold this box, then the next support level would be contract lows at $4.17. Which is the next fib extension level of 78.6%.
Here is another reason a bottom here makes sense.
We just posted a bullish divergence for the 2nd time in a year.
The last time was before the April rally.
The only time we posted bearish divergence was in February right before we sold off.
Divergence means the RSI is not moving the same as price is.
When prices make a new low, but the RSI does not. It is bullish divergence because it signals downside momentum is weakening.
When prices make a new high, but the RSI does not. It is bearish divergence and signals upside momentum is weakening.
Lastly, today we posted a possible bullish inverted hammer.
Some may say “corn closed off the highs that is bearish”.
That is true in an uptrend.
In a downtrend, it actually means that buyers are trying to reverse prices and push us higher.
Dec Corn 🌽
Dec corn bouncing exactly in that golden fib extension box we talked about yesterday.
Again, this box equals 50-61.8% of the first move.
The 1st move was the April sell off.
The 2nd move is right now.
The most common place for a 2nd move to end is 50-61.8% of the 1st move.
In yesterdays update I explained the math on if you still have a hard time understanding this aanalysis. CLICK HERE TO READ
July Beans 🌱
We are bouncing exactly where we want to see us bounce.
I had been saying for several weeks that if at any point we broke below the 200-day MA (pink line) we would likely drop down into this green box.
This green box is the 50-61.8% retracement from the recent highs down to the trade war lows.
That is the most common spot to retrace to.
This box also happens to be major support since harvest. We bounced here several times.
I would like to see us back above the 200-day MA to confirm higher prices.
Nov Beans 🌱
Exact same chart as July.
Trying to bounce in this golden zone support box.
Chicago July 🌾
If we clear $5.55 it should open to the door to $5.70-$5.85
That is where I will be looking to de-risk.
$5.70-$5.85 gives us back 50-61.8% of the Feb highs.
July KC 🌾
We are currently trying to break this old downtrend support line.
It was old support, so it is now resistance.
If we break above, it should lead to more upside.
Target to de-risk is going to be $5.75 to $5.94 which gives us back 50-61.8% of the Feb highs.
We have a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern.
This is a bullish pattern that happens in downtrends.
Need to break above the neckline for confirmation of higher prices.
The implied move for this is $5.95 or so. Which coincidentally also happens to be the 61.8% retracement up to the Feb highs.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
6/3/25
KEY SPOTS ON THE CHARTS FOR CORN & BEANS
6/2/25
NEW LOWS IN CORN. DE-RISKING MPLS WHEAT
6/2/25
SPRING WHEAT SELL SIGNAL
5/30/25
SEASONAL RALLY STILL IN THE CARDS?
5/29/25
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN IF WE DO NOT RALLY?
5/28/25
ZERO PREMIUM IN THE GRAIN MARKETS
5/27/25
CORN CONDITIONS DISAPPOINT & JUNE OUTLOOK IMPROVES
5/23/25
TARIFFS SPOOK MARKET. GAME PLAN MOVING FORWARD
5/22/25
CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
5/21/25
RISK TO THE UPSIDE WITH WEATHER?
5/20/25
WHEAT SHORT COVERING & HISTORY OF YIELD CHANGES
5/19/25
ANYONE LEFT TO SELL WHEAT? 181 CORN YIELD POSSIBLE?
5/16/25
FUNDS SHORT CORN. MARKETS WAITING ON WEATHER
5/15/25
BEANS HAMMERED ON RUMOR & WHEAT FINDING LIFE
5/14/25
DECISIONS & POSSIBILITIES IN GRAINS
5/13/25
GRAINS RALLY OFF LOWS
5/12/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS CHANGES THINGS
5/9/25
BIGGEST RISKS IN USDA REPORT
5/8/25
USDA MONDAY & HISTORY OF WEATHER RALLIES
5/7/25
NEW 2025 LOWS FOR CORN
5/6/25
WHAT’S A SUMMER RALLY LOOK LIKE?
5/5/25
CORN ERASES ENTIRE APRIL RALLY
5/2/25
SELL INTO UNCERTAINTY. NOT KNOWN FACTORS
5/1/25
THE CASE AGAINST A FEB TOP IN CORN
4/30/25
APPROACHING KEY TIME PERIOD FOR GRAINS
4/29/25
PLANTING & FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE. CORN CLOSE TO BOTTOM?
4/28/25
CAPTURING INVERSE & SEASONAL PREPARATION
4/25/25
HOW OFTEN DOES CORN NOT BREAK APRIL HIGHS?
4/24/25
KNOW WHEN TO SELL. BEANS BREAK 200-DAY FIRST TIME IN 483 DAYS
4/23/25
MONEY FLOW & DROUGHT CARDS
4/22/25
CRUCIAL SPOT FOR CORN & BEANS
4/21/25
NO PLANTING THREAT YET
4/18/25
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES, BASIS CONTRACTS & STRATEGIES
4/16/25
HOW YIELD IMPACTS CARRYOUT. MAJOR SPOT FOR SOYBEANS
4/15/25
TOTAL CHART BREAKDOWNS & TARGETS
4/14/25
TECHNICAL SELLING IN GRAINS
4/11/25
SPECIFIC GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS
4/10/25
USDA REPORT. HOW THIS IMPACTS CORN
4/9/25
TARIFFS GIVE. TARIFFS TAKE
4/8/25
CORN’S DIVERGING STRENGTH
4/7/25
SOLID PRICE ACTION DESPITE OUTSIDE FEAR
4/4/25
CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
4/3/25
WHAT IS LEFT FOR CORN BEARS? TRADE WAR: CHARTS HOLDING SUPPORT
4/2/25
SHOULD UNKNOWNS KEEP A FLOOR UNDER GRAIN PRICES?
4/1/25
HOW DO ACRES IMPACT FUTURE OF THE GRAINS?
3/31/25
USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
3/28/25
ALL EYES ON USDA
3/27/25
PRE-USDA POSITIONING. DON’T GIVE GRAIN AWAY
3/26/25
HISTORY OF MARCH INTENTIONS. SOYBEANS UNDERVALUED?
3/25/25
6 DAYS UNTIL MAJOR USDA REPORT
3/24/25
HOW TO POSITION YOURSELF BEFORE PLANTING
3/21/25
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN GRAINS?
3/20/25
WAS THAT THE BOTTOM IN CORN?
3/19/25
THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
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1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25