WHERE IS YOUR RISK AHEAD OF THE USDA?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Still like protecting cattle here
Small trading ranges today
Markets waiting for USDA to make a move
The report isn’t as volatile as it used to be
Haven’t had real USDA since Sep
This report is even more important because of the government shutdown
So many unknowns are supposed to be answered in this report
If you’ve sold too much grain
If you’re forced to sell something
Being comfortable is very important
If you have downside risk in your marketing
I don’t view this report as major downside risk
Who should have protection before USDA
This report should set the stages for how high corn can or can’t go
Past report price changes below audio*
Pre-report strategies link below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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PAST REPORT PRICE CHANGES
Corn 🌽
This report used to feature a lot bigger swings than it does today, but is still a market mover.
Corn has traded higher the last 9 of 13 years.
I wouldn’t say the report tends to be super bullish.
But over the last decade it hasn’t tended to be overly bearish.
In the last 4 times we traded lower, 3 of them we only saw losses of -2 cents.
Since 2012, the only year we truly got a negative reaction was 2024 where we dropped over a dime.
Average Move Past 10 Years: +/- 8 cents.
Soybeans 🌱
Soybeans have traded higher the last 9 of 10 years.
Higher the last 14 of 20 years.
The report has tended to be on the friendly side for beans especially over the last decade.
Average Move Past 10 Years: +/- 18 cents.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Dec 11th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Dec 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 17th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱
Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.
Oct 28th: 🌽
Corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 13th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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