MOST BEARISH JAN USDA IN OVER A DECADE
AUDIO COMMENTARY
One of more bearish Jan reports ever for corn
USDA raises corn yield & acres
Biggest carryout increases in a decade
Bean carryout surprised high
Wheat surprises high
All 3 came in negative
Largest drop in corn since 2023
What to watch for a bottom
If you have things to price
Those with basis contracts
Corn wiped out 150 days of price action
Balance sheet changes below audio*
USDA numbers below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
Here is a separate audio for those with options. Whether you have puts, calls, or a ratio trade on. Exit strategies etc.
If you have corn or bean calls
What if you did a ratio calendar trade
What you should ride out or not
Different ways to approach trades
If you have puts on
Exit strategies
Listen to today’s audio below
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USDA & BALANCE SHEETS
Here is the changes made to the balance sheet. Red highlights a bearish change. Green highlights a friendly change.
Corn 🌽
The USDA bumped yield AND acres.
This raised supply by +288 million bushels.
We saw feed and residul bumped by +100 million, which helped offset that increase in supply.
For a net increase of +198 million to our carryout.
The USDA opted to leave exports unchanged.
Beans 🌱
The USDA left yield unchanged.
However, they slightly bumped acres.
They also lowered our exports by -60 million while increasing crush by +15 million.
For a net increase of +60 million on the carryout.
PAST CARRYOUT CHANGES
Today’s report featured the largest increase to carryout for the Jan report in over the last decade for both corn and soybeans.
USDA VS ESTIMATES
Here is all of the numbers vs the estimates.
Nearly everything surprised high vs the estimates.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Dec 11th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Dec 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 17th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱
Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.
Oct 28th: 🌽
Corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 13th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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