RISKS WITH A USDA SLOW PLAY
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Big spread movement in cattle
Bunch of catch up data being released
USDA report on Dec 9th
Fundamentals not super friendly based on current balance sheet without a needle mover
Bulls want a weather scare in Brazil
Using options still makes sense in corn
What if the USDA doesn’t come clean?
USDA historically kicks the can. Sometimes it can take a lot longer than we’d like
Short term we do not have to go higher
Stay away from being forced to do something
Levels to watch in corn & wheat (charts below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
It’s great we bounced right in that golden zone we had been talking about. 61.8% of the recent rally from Oct.
However, we are now rejecting the level that reclaims 61.8% of this sell off. Which is at $4.48
Like we talked about last week, if we break above that level, it will be our green light we are ready to move higher. As more often than not, if we break above that level it is no longer a correctional bounce.
To the downside, we still need to hold the red box and golden zone.
March Wheat 🌾
Pretty simple here.
Bulls really want to hold this red box here.
If we are going to bounce, it needs to be here.
Because if we break below, odds favor us going to test those contract lows.
Pretty important spot to hold.
Past Sell & Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Nov 17th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱
Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.
Oct 28th: 🌽
Corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 13th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
KC wheat & corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans sell signal.
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
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Dec 11: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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