OLD CROP & NEW CROP

We like at least partially rewarding this rally in both old crop and new crop, provided it allows this to be a profitable sale.

We don’t want to go overboard or anything at all, but a small, simple start here makes sense in new crop for some of you.

We don’t want to be super aggressive. The funds are buying despite the Brazilian crop and all the unknowns. If money wants to continue to pile in, it can.

So yes, we still see plenty of potential in this market moving forward and we can certainly go higher. But that doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed and there aren’t risks. It’s about managing your risk and being comfortable. Short term, there are some reasons to pause and re-evaluate.

If you are a producer who normally has some sold by now, then it might make sense for you to take a small amount of risk off the table.

If you are someone who normally waits until spring or summer, then we don’t have an issue remaining more patient.

Overall, we like keeping plenty of dry powder as the possibility for higher prices is certainly there.

But we like having downside protection here at some of the highest prices we’ve seen in almost two years.

Whether that is with futures, options, or HTA contracts, depending on your operation.

Some Strategy Examples:

You could sell a Nov $13 call to buy an April $11.50 put for just a few cents.

Or you could sell a Nov $12.00 call to buy a May $11.50 put and collect a few cents.

We prefer doing this over making sales as it gives you upside to +$12.00 depending on the strategy.

If you are going to use options, you could consider using old crop options for your new crop. As if we head lower, old crop should lead the way.

So if you do sell some beans, you could use the July-Nov spread as a re-ownership strategy.

It’s trading at about a 50 cent inverse. Which is about the same cost as owning a July ATM call option.

Take a look at the spread on both of the rallies and the fallout back in November.

If the balance sheet gets tight, the spreads will do a lot of the work.

If you want to talk specifics or come up with a strategy, give us a call or text:

Jeremey: (605)250-3863

Lauren: (806)484-1214

Why the signal?

We are right up against those highs from November for both old crop and new crop.

So those who missed those highs, have another chance.

Yes, if we break above it should open the door higher.

But until then, there is always the risk for a short term double top as this is resistance.

The indicators are also giving a reason for caution.

We are simply overbought, and the MACD momentum is close to shifting lower. So a short-term pullback wouldn’t be a shock. As we haven’t seen a real pullback this entire rally.

Politics are going to drive the market and make it hard to navigate.

We still have some time until that meeting with China on March 30th.

The next spot we want to reward old crop is $12.00

Your free trial has ended..

Lock in full access so you don’t miss future updates or signals

Click Here for Full Access

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Feb 19th: 🌾

KC wheat sell signal & hedge alert.

SOYBEAN SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT

OLD CROP & NEW CROP

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Want to Talk?

Hedge Account

KC WHEAT SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT