AUDIO COMMENTARY

Metals traded in their largest range ever today
Grains are the cheaper of the commodities
Demand remains solid
US budget headlines
Super cold forecasts in Ukraine
Were close to soybean sell signal
USDA says we should reward rallies
Should you do anything with new crop?
Often want to wait for insurance pricing for new crop
Outside market volatility spilling over
Weather in parts of the world isn’t perfect
We’ve created enough demand to where supply needs to be there
What happens if we get a weather scare one of these years?
World story in corn is still tightest in decade
US dollar continues to look weak
Soybean exports catching up to USDA target
Decide what your basis outlook is
Deciding when to make a cash sale, grab a put, or make a sale and re-own with a call

Listen to today’s audio below

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A FEW CHARTS

I will be going into these deeper in tomorrow’s video but here are the current targets and some thoughts.

March Corn 🌽

Still want to be taking risk off the table at $4.36-37 for a variety of reasons we’ve talked about.

The biggest one being it claws back 50% of the Nov highs. It was old key support.

The same concept behind that old $4.50 sell signal.

March Beans 🌱

Just missed that target box.

Since this correction was so deep we are looking to reward a move towards $10.89 to $11.05

In a big picture downward trend like this one where the correction was so deep, the 38.2% retracement level is very common for us to top out at on a relief bounce. Sometimes it can extend to the 50% level.

So currently we want to reward $10.89 if it comes.

We got up to $10.85 today.

If we go higher to $11.05 we want to de-risk even further.

Despite closing well off the highs again, it does look like we are simply back testing the old point of break out and trying to turn it into support. Would like to see us hold today’s lows. As a break below support wouldn’t look amazing.

Nov Beans 🌱

From the Nov highs the sell off in Nov beans was much smaller than the sell off in March beans.

Nov beans dropped -76 cents. March beans dropped -$1.35

Double the drop.

Which leads to the target levels being higher for Nov beans.

So we want to reward a move at the 61.8% level if it comes. The most common level. Which is right about at $11.00. We got up to $10.98 today.

If we go even higher to the next level. The 78.6% level at $11.15 we want to de-risk even further.

March Wheat 🌾

We broke a multi-month trend line resistance. Great sign.

However, we are battling one last resistance level here.

The golden fib. 61.8% of the Nov highs.

It would make sense to struggle here.

However, if we break above it could tell us this rally has some legs to it.

Big level for bulls to break here.

Seems far away today but currently targeting $5.68 to $5.84. Which is 50-61.8% of the June highs.

The KC chart is much stronger, which does make me have some optimism Chicago could follow.

March KC Wheat 🌾

Much stronger than Chicago.

We are firmly above the 61.8% level up to the Nov highs.

Often times, this tells us the rally has some steam and this isn’t just your typically relief bounce.

We want to reward a move towards $5.65 to $5.81

50-61.8% of the June highs. That same area is old support as well.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Dec 11th: 🐮

Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.

OUTSIDE MARKET VOLATILITY SPILLS OVER

AUDIO COMMENTARY

A FEW CHARTS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

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