AUDIO COMMENTARY

Cattle sell signal today
Cattle charts below audio*
Layering into cattle protection
Open interest is telling us that it is hard to go post new highs in the cattle market
USDA report on Tuesday
Will we see any big changes in USDA?
Beans selling off despite flash sales to China
Still wide ranges for the USDA trade estimates
Where is soybean bottom? (chart below)*
Corn needs over $4.50 (chart below)*
We still have big crops, but demand is extremely salty for the corn market
Some 2020 vibes. Possible but unknown
Yield, China, interest rates, there are several factors at play the next few months
Once supply hiccup away from a different story in corn due to stellar demand
What happens if things get done with China?

Listen to today’s audio below

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CHARTS

Jan Beans 🌱

Not a great look here as we broke some clear support.

Where could the bottom be?

Everyone is talking about that gap fill.

It could, but gaps do not have to fill.

Testing this green box makes the most sense to me. We don’t have to, but there are a few reasons why it makes sense to do so.

On one hand, this is the golden zone. The most common place for a standard correction to happen. This market can come all the way down to this green box and still be in a “technical uptrend”. Meaning this entire sell-off would still be viewed as a normal correction.

Not only that, this box perfectly lines up with our old yearly resistance.

We rejected this level on 6 separation occasions. It was a complete lid the entire year. Coming down to turn this old resistance into our new support would not surprise me at all.

Jan Feeders 🐮

We tapped that first target today. So we alerted a sell signal and hedge alert.

The first target was 50% of the entire sell off.

Not only that, we tapped the 50-day MA as well. Which used to be key support. Now resistance.

If we continue higher, we want to further de-risk at the 61.8% level. Which would line up with the gap fill.

This box is the most common spot for a market to revert back to on a relief bounce.

Feb Live 🐮

Live cattle did end up hitting the first target as well today.

We will play it by ear here, but we have the 50-day above us, the 61.8% level, and the gap that are all points of interest.

Either way, this box is where the market makes the decision.

The market decides if this is just a relief bounce or something more.

As this is the most common area for a relief bounce to end.

March Corn 🌽

Sideways action continues.

To the upside, we really need over $4.50 to confirm more upside.

However, closing above the 200-day MA for multiple days in a row would be a good sign as well. As up to this point we have not done that yet.

To the downside, we still need to hold that golden zone and the recent lows to prevent a bigger correction.

March Wheat 🌾

Trapped in a very very tight range.

Break above the blue box and we should get some upside.

At the same time, we need to continue to hold this golden fib at $5.31 which we have now tested several times.

If we fail this level it opens the door down to contract lows.

If we are going to bounce, it needs to be here.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Nov 17th: 🌱

Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.

CATTLE PROTECTION. BEANS SELL OFF DESPITE CHINA SALES

AUDIO COMMENTARY

CHARTS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

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CATTLE SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT