BASIS NEGOTIATION
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Another wide range in metals
Fundamentally cattle is tight
Potential vs risk in cattle market
Corn and soybeans bounce off the lows
Decent price action despite being lower
Might be sideways until fresh news in grains
Export shipments stout again
Argument for higher corn exports
Trump’s fed chair pick creating volatility
Grains need a fundamental story
We have minor stories but no major stories
New factors vs the old factors
How will payments affect farmer selling?
Typically see pressure 2nd half of Feb
Big ag tends to front run first notice day
Trade deal done with India
If you have a basis contract that needs to be priced you have to be proactive. Do not get stuck at the end
Ask for basis pushes. Many get 5-8 cents
Basis negotiation
Corn & beans hold golden zone (charts below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CORN & SOYBEAN CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
We perfectly bounced at the 61.8% retracement of this entire bounce.
Bulls need to hold there to keep bias remaining higher.
Like we always talk about, that is the most common level for a correction to end.
So if we are going to bounce, it should be right here.
Still looking to reward $4.36 to $4.37 like we’ve discussed.
March Beans 🌱
Also held the golden zone. Along with a nice candle today.
If we are going to bounce, it needs to be here.
Failure to hold the box would tell us that this pullback is something bigger than just a small correction.
Something to be cautious of is a potential head and shoudlers pattern on a big picture scale. It doesn’t mean we can’t go higher from here, because we can. But it’s a risk moving forward and something to watch a little more long term. As the pattern has been developing since August.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Dec 11th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Dec 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 17th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱
Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.
Oct 28th: 🌽
Corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 13th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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