USDA TOMORROW
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Cattle sell signal on Friday
Last USDA they commented that they didn’t have all the data as usual. Does that lead to a bigger change?
USDA never touches production in Dec
Probably going to see USDA kick can
If tax man saying you need to sell
Cash flow at cheaper rates
Report probably won’t do anything
Implied volatility is cheap
Those looking for a home run
Things we’re watching
Haven’t had any wheat weather scares
Being patient if you have control
If you’ve been forced to sell
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
We need to break above the 200-day and get consecutive closes above it to confirm further upside. Which we have not done since this summer. We’ve recently closed above it twice, both times only lasted a day.
To the downside, we need to hold the recent lows and the red box.
Which gives back 61.8% of the rally from Oct.
Jan Beans 🌱
Now down around -75 cents off the highs.
Approaching that golden zone box of the entire rally.
Could we fill the gap? It’s possible but doesn’t have to happen.
This box also lines up with our old yearly resistance. Which is now viewed as support.
So finding a bottom around that $10.72 area would make sense.
March Wheat 🌾
Completely sideways for a few weeks now. Trapped in a tiny range waiting for a decision.
We need to break the blue box to spark more upside. Where we have rejected several days in a row.
To the downside, we need to hold the golden fib. Which is 61.8% of the entire rally from contract lows. Which we have held this far.
Hold that level and the trend remains higher, break below and we could go test those contract lows.
Very important spot to hold.
Jan Feeders 🐮
Friday we reclaimed exactly 50% of the entire sell off.
We also tapped the 50-day MA.
The 50-day MA used to be an absolute floor in this market. Since it was once support, it is now viewed as resistance.
Both of these led to us issuing a sell signal and hedge alert on Friday.
If the rally were to continue, the next level we are looking to de-risk even further would be the 61.8% level and the gap fill.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Dec 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 17th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱
Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.
Oct 28th: 🌽
Corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Oct 13th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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