CRUDE HAMMERED. GRAINS HOLD UP
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Crude hammered yet grains held up
Impressive price action in corn & beans
Trump & Iran 2-week ceasefire
War ending could help China buy beans
Deferred crude didn’t drop much
Wheat hit hardest with fertilizer tie in
USDA report out tomorrow
Entering a weather market soon
What if war lasts into growing season?
Planting getting started in US
The planting and growing season brings volatility
There are still plenty of unknowns
Until war is over can’t write off grains
Still selling high implied volatility
Trend has been more demand
Corn & beans held key support (charts below)*
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CORN & BEAN CHARTS
May Corn 🌽
We held that key support we’ve been talking about for the last week or two.
The golden zone after giving back 61.8% of the rally.
Majority of the time.. this is where the market either bounces or falls apart.
If we are going to bounce, this would be where it would normally take place.
That $4.45 level is also key support from last fall.
My personal bias thinks we hold, but again it’s a must hold level.
I’ll have some upside targets out once I feel like we’ve carved out a local bottom.
Here is another chart.
This shows the 200-day MA (blue) and 100-day MA (purple).
We closed right at both of them.
Both of these have acted as support or resistance in the past, specifically during last fall.
So if we get a push above these, it would give us more confidence we’ve put in a local bottom for now.
We do have some hidden bullish divergence on the RSI as well. This happens when the RSI makes a new low, but prices do not. Prices are higher than they were the last time the RSI was this low.
I think we at the very least are due for a relief bounce.
May Beans 🌱
Also held key support. We’ve been talking about this $11.45 level for almost a month now.
There is very little support beneath that level.
Today could’ve been a classic false breakdown (aka bear trap).
Overall, still completely sideways. Still chopping around at peak volume.
Need to hold $11.45 or we get a sizeable leg lower.
To the upside, we want to reward a move to $11.90 to $12.00 if it comes.
Watching for a break above the 20-day MA for confirmation, as we’ve rejected that several times now on this chop.
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