CRUDE RIPS. GRAINS CONTINUE DIP
AUDIO COMMENTARY
More follow through selling in grains
Only bright spot is we didn’t close at lows
Crude rallies but grains don’t follow
If you are uncomfortable grab puts
If you’re long board & the bin
Find a way to be comfortable
Still no news out of China
If you followed buy signal have an exit plan
If crude goes to $150 corn is too cheap
First crop conditions out
Old crop corn broke support but new crop hasn’t yet
Look at your basis and what to watch
Forecasts flipped wet (below audio)*
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS & WEATHER FORECAST
Before we look at the charts, I just wanted to throw in the forecast.
Here is the outlook for mid-June.
It flipped pretty wet, which was a large part for the weakness today.
As the entire corn belt is expected to see plenty of moisture.
July Corn 🌽
We broke key support Friday. We failed to crawl back above it today. Not a good sign at all.
The only bright spot was we closed well off the lows today.
From a technical standpoint I’d say the chart is broken.
However, we don’t just have to completely fall apart in a straight line until harvest.
We will be wanting to reward a relief bounce if we get one.
Anywhere in that $4.60-70 level if we find a bottom here. That target moves lower if we post new lows.
Front Month Corn 🌽
We also broke key support on this chart.
This could very well be a sign we are starting that seasonal correction before finding our bottom in August to September.
We broke below the uptrend we’ve respected since the harvest lows.
Dec Corn 🌽
The chart isn’t broken yet in Dec.
Still holding that major key support.
We gave back exactly 61.8% of the entire rally today.
This is where bulls need to step in. As if we break below, it opens the door even lower.
This same level was prior resistance and the April lows.
July Beans 🌱
Really in no mans land here.
Need to hold the bottom of this range to prevent us from falling into the big picture red box. Which is the golden zone retracements of the entire rally.
Nov Beans 🌱
Chart is holding up the best of all the grains.
Still in a clear uptrend for now.
We had that sell signal at $12.09
Overall, need to hold $11.55 to prevent a leg lower.
July KC Wheat 🌾
Approaching the golden zone.
The 50% to 61.8% retracement from the contract highs down to the contract lows.
This blue box is going to be a must hold area.
This box where I’d expect us to find some life.
July Chicago Wheat 🌾
Same story as KC.
Approaching that golden zone.
This is where we’d expect us to find some life.
However, it is a must hold area.
Otherwise it opens the door a lot lower.
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Email: sfrost@dailymarketminute.com
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