CHINA COMMITS BUT NO DETAILS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains take a hit again
Markets falling on no fresh China news
China commits to double-digit billions of ags
Comparing previous China purchase volume
Some announcement wouldn’t surprise me
China knows what they are doing
China wouldn’t run up price before they buy
We don’t have the supply to meet the phase one deal volume we saw back in 2021
Trump said deals were made in ag but did not revealed any fine details
When would China want to buy? On a break
Some damage has been done on the charts
No real hiccups in production
If you feel like you missed the boat consider some cheap puts
Buying puts vs making sales
Headline driven markets set traps
This market doesn’t “have” to be done
Trump or China didn’t say they were not buying
Realize possibilities but define your risk
Is the potential still there?
Charts & supports below audio*
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CHARTS & MUST HOLD SPOTS
Dec Corn 🌽
We broke the first golden zone.
Which was 50% to 61.8% of those April lows.
Objectively, that is not a great sign as it does potentially open the door.
We do not “have” to get there. But the next major support is between $4.68 and $4.75.
That is 50% to 61.8% of the entire rally. From those highs just 3 days ago, all the way down to those lows from January after the USDA report.
That $4.68 level and the 61.8% retracement would be viewed as a must hold level. If we break that it would not be a good sign. As it would be a sign that this market might be truly falling apart.
That was prior resistance on countless occasions. It’s right where we bottomed in April.
But in headline driven markets, you can see head fakes.
So if we crawl back above that first golden zone right away on Monday, that might be it for the correction. As you often give a market a “two day rule”.
But for now the blue box is the ultimate must hold level.
July Corn 🌽
July corn also broke the orginal golden zone.
July corn is one of the weakest charts on this nasty sell off.
That must hold level is going to around $4.50 and those April lows.
That gives back 61.8% of the recent highs all the way down to contract lows.
If you lose that level.. it would not be good. That was also major support from last fall.
That is the line in the sand.
July Beans 🌱
We failed to hold the first golden zone and turn that old resistance into new support.
We are now flirting with the lows from that old brutal range.
This is pretty much our last line of defense. As failure to hold these range lows opens the door to that red box.
The red box gives back 50% to 61.8% of the entire rally since January.
$11.36 and the 61.8% level is the absolute line in the sand. As there is a massive amount of air beneath that level.
Nov Beans 🌱
This is probably the best looking chart out of all of the grains.
We are still in a clear uptrend for now.
We are still holding that first golden zone.
Still trying to turn that old resistance into new support.
The level to hold is $11.55. That gives back 61.8% of those March lows.
Fail that level and it opens the door towards the green box and those old lows. But the structure is higher unless that breaks.
July KC 🌾
Nasty sell off, but this chart isn’t broken yet either.
We failed to hold that first golden zone and turn that old resistance into new support.
The next major level of support might be the golden zone down to the April lows.
Which comes in at $6.56 to $6.74.
That would be the must hold level. That’s resistance from March. It’s also where we previously bottomed.
Failure to hold there would open the door lower.
Something to note is that we did fill that gap we left a week ago, so that could be viewed as positive.
But really the trend is still higher unless $6.56 breaks. Break that and we could head towards that $6.00 range and the April lows.
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