AUDIO COMMENTARY

3 year low in US dollar
Corn planting 12% vs 10% average
The dollar making exports more competitive
Haven’t seen any actual tariff deals done. Mexico says they didn’t strike a final deal
Not going to bet against the farmer getting the crop in the ground
Market seems to think trendline yield isn’t far stretch
There isn’t much weather premium in this market
World corn situation still super tight. Adds potential
If you have basis contracts to price
Marketing plans don’t have to be complicated
Pulling the trigger when scares arise
Demand cures high & low prices
Planting progress not scary slow
Wheat still has plenty of potential
Should you be doing anything in marketing?
What is bad marketing? How to avoid it
Charts not damaged yet (charts below)*
Beans close to must hold level (chart below)*

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CHARTS

July Corn 🌽

Stalling right where we thought we should. After reclaiming 61.8% of the Feb highs.

Bulls want to to hold this key support from last spring. If not, we can’t rule out a drop down to the golden zone of this recent rally (50-61.8% pullback from recent highs to recent lows).

Overall next big picture target is $5.23 to $5.26

Which is the Feb highs as well as the golden fib extension of this recent rally (161.8% of this rally)

Dec Corn 🌽

Bulls want to the big green box on the left. That is old resistance (now support).

Big picture upside target is $4.84 to $4.89

$4.84 is 78.6% of the May 2024 highs.

$4.89 is the golden fib extension of this rally (Equals 161.8% of the recent rally)

July Beans 🌱

Sitting at a pretty key spot here right above the 100-day MA.

If we break below, there is a good chance we drop back down into that key support that has acted as support several times since fall.

This level is also gives back 50-61.8% of the recent rally (the most common spot for prices to retrace to before bouncing)

On the other hand, if we break above the 200-day MA is should result in a lot more upside. As we haven’t closed above it really since 2023.

Next target is $11.04 which gives us back 50% of the May 2024 highs and it is also the golden fib extension of this recent rally.

Nov Beans 🌱

Watching the exact same things in Nov beans as July.

The two biggest things to watch here are the 100 & 200-day MA.

A break above or below gives us our next direction.

July KC 🌾

Still hovering at the key support where we have bounced countless tomes since August.

Unless we break below this box, nothing changes.

Simply stuck in a massive range, waiting for us to go back up and re-test the upper end of the range for 3rd time before taking much risk off the table.