USDA NUMBERS
*Full update will be out later this afternoon*
Production
Corn:
Yield was trimmed down to 186.7 which was less than last months 188.8 but not as much as the trade was expecting.
They were expecting yield to come in at 186.2
The surprise here was again acres. As they jumped another +1.3 million acres.
Beans
Yield came in at 53.5 which was just lower than last month’s 53.6 and above the estimates of 53.3
Harvested acres also saw a slight surprise high but not as drastic as the increase in corn. As acres jumped 200k.
*Scroll to check out the balance sheet changes & demand changes*
Carryout
Corn Carryout:
Carryout came in about right where it was last month, but +100 million more than the trade was expecting.
Bean Carryout:
Carryout came in +10 million higher than last month and the trade estimates.
Wheat Carryout:
Carryout came in lower than last month and the estimates.
Balance Sheet Breakdown
Corn:
With the increase in acres, we saw production increase about +90 million bushels. As the decrease in yield partially offset the increase in acres.
However, we saw exports raised +100 million. Which led to total demand increasing +100 million.
Total supply was raised +93 million
Total demand was raised +100 million
The net change to carryout was -7 million
Beans
We saw a slight decrease to yield but also a slight bump in acres. Which offset each other.
This led to a net change of +9 million on the supply side.
On the demand side, we saw exports dropped by -25 million, but seed and residual was raised +3 and crush was raised +15. So it was basically a wash on the demand side.
Which resulted in carryout being bumped by +10 million.
World Carryout
The biggest surprise here was wheat, as it increased by more than expected after we saw harvest acres increase in Russia, Canada, Australia, EU, and Ukraine.
Corn was about at the estimates while soybeans were slightly below the estimates.
Past Sell & Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
KC wheat & corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans sell signal.
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Dec 11: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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