*Full update will be sent this afternoon*

We received a huge data dump at the same time as the USDA that included exports etc. We will go over those numbers in today’s video update.

Yield

Corn:

186 vs 184 est vs 186.7 in Sep

Beans:

53 vs 53.1 est vs 53.5 in Sep

So corn yield came in higher than the estimates and was only lowered by -0.7 bpa. Meanwhile soybeans came in just lower than the estimates. Falling -0.5 bpa from Sep.

(Scroll to the end see how this impacted the balance sheets along with the demand changes etc)

Carryout

Corn:

2.154 vs 2.136 est vs 2.110 in Sep

Beans:

0.290 vs 0.304 est vs 0.300 in Sep

Wheat:

0.901 vs 0.867 est vs 0.844 in Sep

World Carryout

Corn:

281.34 vs 282.75 est vs 281.40 in Sep

Beans:

121.99 vs 124.21 est vs 123.99 in Sep

Wheat:

271.43 vs 266.13 est vs 264.06 in Sep

Balance Sheet Changes

Green highlights bullish changes from the Sep report. Red highlights bearish changes.

Corn:

The cut to yield resulted in production falling -62 million bushels.

However, we did get that +207 million bu increase in beginning stocks from the quarterly stocks report.

Which led to total supply jumping +144 million bu.

But the USDA raised exports by +100 million to help offset that bump in supply.

Resulting in a small increase of +44 million to our carryout.

On the bright side, they did not lower feed and residual demand like many thought they could.

Overall not too major of changes. Especially considering they had 2 months.

Beans:

The cut to yield resulted in about a -50 million bu decrease to supply. We also had beginning stocks lowered. Which ended in supply dropping -60 million bushels.

However, the USDA did drop export demand by -50 million.

Which led to a net loss of -10 million to our carryout.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Nov 13th: 🌽 🌱

Managing risk in corn & beans ahead of USDA report.

USDA NUMBERS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

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