TRUMP & CHINA BLOOD BATH
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Blood bath in grains & stocks
Cattle showing strength amidst weakness
Trump says he will cancel China meeting
Grains still flying blind with shutdown
Wheat struggles to find catalyst
Feeder cattle reached target (chart below)*
Like having hedges on cattle up here & rolling up puts
How to capture the cattle rally with puts
How to manage margin risk in cattle
You have to be proactive in soybeans
You have to have a plan if we don’t get trade deal
Spreads & basis been firming
Wheat will take off eventually, it just might not be when you want it to
Soybeans reject exactly off 61.8% (chart below)*
What to do if you know you have to deliver
If you want to capture the carry
Why you want a hedge account vs an elevator when aiming to capture the carry
Biggest weather bet ever on Brazil this year
Listen to today’s audio below
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CATTLE & SOYBEAN CHART
Nov Beans 🌱
We failed exactly at that critical spot we’ve been talking about for a few weeks.
We reclaimed 61.8% of the sell off before rejecting hard.
This is the most common spot for a relief bounce to end.
Both the summer bounced failed at this same level before heading lower.
Risk is lower until we break above the purple box.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we went and posted one final leg lower, but doesn’t have to happen.
This is why one last leg lower would not surprise me. I’ve been showing this chart for a while as well.
The summer sell off featured a 5 wave move.
Up until two days ago, we only had 4 waves.
So we could definitely see that 5 wave make a new low.
Again, this doesn’t “have” to happen. But it’s definitely possible.
Nov Feeder 🐮
We almost touched that target at 377. Right up against it.
This is the golden fib from the bottom of the pennatn up to those late Sep highs.
It is a common spot for a 2nd rally to pause.
Will share target #2 if we break above this one.
Dec Live 🐮
Live finally followed feeders and got a breakout.
The chart looks pretty solid here. We did not post new ATHs but posted a new high close.
Since we got the breakout, we could potentially go and post new highs.
If we do, one target I have is the golden fib at 248.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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