GRAINS & CRUDE ALL SMOKED
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains , cattle & crude all smoked today
Pause in the Iran war leads to crude pressure
China mad about Brazil tariffs
Forecasts threw in some rain
It’s called a “futures” market for a reason
Grains were due for a correction
Still have unfilled gaps from last Sunday
Headline driven markets can move illogical
Markets can change on a dime
If there is such a concern why is there a massive carry in the market? That is one concern
Wheat is going to need acres
Russia and Ukraine story isn’t resolved yet
Corn ratings dropped by -4% & beans -3%
Drop in conditions more than expected
What if we don’t rally? What is your plan?
Some charts below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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SOME CHARTS
I will have a deeper analysis in my video tomorrow.
Sep Corn 🌽
We are so far rejecting in that golden zone we talked about last week.
Which claws back 50% to 61.8% of the contract lows all the way up to the contract highs.
Dec Corn 🌽
So far we rejected the 78.6% retracement from the contract lows up to those May highs.
Which is the last resistance before those May highs.
Where do we want to see us hold?
We do still have that open gap that sits at $4.68. Which also happens to give back 38.2% of the entire rally. So that would be the first spot bulls are going to look at for some possible support.
That levels also lines up with some past resistance. So bulls want to turn it into support.
If we fail to hold that level, we likely drop into the golden zone.
If we break below that 61.8% level at $4.50 then it would look like it is over. As it would no longer be viewed as a normal correction. That would be my line in the sand. As we could test the lows if that breaks.
Aug Beans 🌱
We tapped contract highs on Friday.
Today we gave back the entire rally from last week.
If you look at the continuous chart, this is something we talked about last week as well.
Those contract highs in Aug beans line up with some high time frame resistance levels in the continuous chart.
It’s right where we topped in 2024. It’s where we bottomed in 2023.
So clearly big resistance.
However, if you are able to break above that level there is a unfilled gap at $13.00
Nov Beans 🌱
The trend is still clearly higher in this market for now despite the nasty day today.
We still have an unfilled gap at $12.04
Overall bulls want to see us hold that volume shelf. And turn that old resistance into some new support.
As if you break below that level, there is a gap or air to the downside.
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