AUDIO COMMENTARY

Huge ranges in cattle
All about the USDA tomorrow
Many analysts have a higher corn yield
We didn’t get many answers from USDA
Corn looks like it’s ran its course
Funds are about short now
We are at a spot where we should get more buyers than sellers for the rest of the year
Reasons why buyers might want coverage
Why the weak start in corn demand is not a surprise or concern just yet
What are all the possibilities?
What could mark the lows in corn?
There are things USDA can’t afford
Most states should be lower vs last month
There is a huge amount riding on this report
A lot has been priced in already
2 of the 3 scenarios could be positive action
Why a bottom in corn might make sense
Things could get dicey next year
Have to move stuff soon?
When to use calls vs puts
Want to be patient as possible
Options very cheap to both sides
Things won’t be bearish forever
Year over year projections shrinking
More time. Be patient. Less time. Be proactive

Listen to today’s audio below

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USDA ESTIMATES

Here are the estimates.

Despite the large range, 17 of the 19 analysts have us between 179-181 for corn yield.

Despite the average guess being a lower corn yield, if you remove the one analyst who has 173, the average trade guess moves +0.5 bpa higher. So instead of 180.3 it goes to 180.8 vs last month’s 181.2.

Most analysts have us in that 179-181 range.

With StoneX being 183 and one analyst being 173.