(TEST) CORN SELL SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT
OLD CROP & NEW CROP CORN
We like taking some chips off the table here and getting comfortable if you are someone who is behind in your marketing or hasn’t rewarded this rally yet. Essentially just catching up.
The risks are of course the USDA report next week and if the war de-escalates.
We like using options as a simple way to protect your downside while giving you furtherr upside potential. Scroll to view a few different strategies.
How sold or hedge should you be?
We like being anywhere from 75%+ sold or hedged on old crop. If you are over sold, you could consider some options strategies that allow you to participate in the upside potential. Such as a call option etc.
What about new crop?
How sold, or not sold you should be on new crop depends on your individual situation. No two operations are the same.
If you have inputs locked in and can be profitable, it makes sense to be more sold than someone who does not. If you do not have inputs locked in we’d be less sold.
Those who lack storage and will be forced to sell off the combine should be more sold than someone with ample storage who does not have to move stuff off the combine.
Generically speaking, if you have to move stuff off the combine, we like being anywhere from 25% to 40% hedged or sold on new crop.
If you do not have to move stuff off the combine, you have more flexibility, so you could consider being closer to that 10% to 25% range. Leaving plenty of bullets for that seasonal April to June slot.
Our preference is to use options to keep yourself upside open. If you don’t like options, you can consider an incremental sale to get yourself to a comfortable level.
If you keep scrolling, we go over a few options strategies to protect your downside.
Give us a call or text if you have questions.
Office: (806)484-1214
(Scroll for options strategies)
The Charts
All contracts are showing bearish divergence on the RSI.
Prices are pushing higher, the RSI is not.
This doesn’t mean we have to fall apart.
Can we go higher? Absolutely.
It’s simply a potential warning sign that we are starting to lose that upside momentum.
Here is Dec corn for reference.
Dec corn once again tagged that next target we’ve been talking about for weeks for the 3rd time.
Next target after this is contract highs at $5.12
Here is a weekly chart for reference.
Tagged the 78.6% level up to contract highs again.
That same level is the big gap we left on the chart.
Here is July corn.
Also showing bearish divergence.
July corn is entering it’s golden zone from contract lows up to contract highs.
We can push higher, but this general area between $4.80 to $4.90 is a good place to start to reward or defend in our opinion.
Dec corn is higher than it was all of 2025 and 2024.
2 year highs.
Is the upside potential higher than it was the last 2 years? Yes it is. No doubt.
Even though we believe there is still potential, this is not the worst spot to start doing something.
Options Strategies
Texas Hedge goes over some of these strategies in further detail. Head over to their website if you’d like to see all the details.
Old Crop Strategy 1:
Simple Downside Protection
Buy a May ATM put for 10-15 cents
This expires April 24th. So it covers you through the next two USDA reports.
Old Crop Strategy 2:
Call Premium Pays for Protection
Buy a May ATM put
Sell a $5.30 Dec call
If you are comfortable selling calls, the premium from selling the call would cover the cost of the put.
Old Crop Strategy 3:
30 Cents of Protection for No Cost
Buy July $4.70 put
Sell July $4.30 put
Sell July $5.00 call
This would give you 30 cents of downside protection for no cost.
New Crop Strategy 1:
Simple Downside Protection
Buy a June $4.80 put
Based off Dec but expires in May. Offers 57 days of protection for 10 cents or less.
New Crop Strategy 2:
Protection for 8 Cents with 60 Cents of Upside
Buy Dec $4.80 put (6/26 exp)
Sell Dec $5.50 call (6/26 exp)
Net cost of 8 cents. Gives you a floor of $4.80 and 60 cents of upside participation until June 26th.
New Crop Strategy 3:
Collect Over 30 Cents with a $4.10-$6.10 Breakeven
Sell Dec $4.50 put
Sell Dec $5.70 call
This lets you collect over 30 cents and gives you a breakeven from $4.10 to $6.10 on the trade.
We made an entire post about this single trade last week. Use the hyper link to read the full details on it.
These strategies may not be the right fit for you and offer different risks. Give us a call or a text if you want to talk through them.
Office: (806)484-1214
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Jeremey, Lauren & Office: (806)484-1214
Sebastian: (605)280-1186
Email: sfrost@dailymarketminute.com
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or give us a call.
Recent Signals
March 19th, 2026: 🌱
New crop soybeans signal & hedge alert.
March 9th, 2026: 🌱
Soybeans signal & hedge alert. Sent via text.
March 6th, 2026: 🌽 🌾
Corn & wheat sell signal & hedge alert.
March 3rd, 2026: 🌽
Old crop & new crop corn sell signal & hedge alert.
Feb 26th, 2026: 🌱
Old crop & new crop beans sell signal & hedge alert.
Feb 19th, 2026: 🌾
KC wheat sell signal & hedge alert.
Feb 6th, 2026: 🌽 🌱
Old crop corn & soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Feb 4th, 2026: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
Nov 17th, 2025: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.