USDA NUMBERS
*Full update will be sent this afternoon*
Quarterly Stocks:
Corn: 1.532 vs 1.337 estimate
Beans: 0.316 vs 0.323 estimate
Wheat: 2.120 vs 2.043 estimate
Corn fell far above the estimates. As the USDA found +200 million bushels. This will add +200 million bushels on to the new crop balance sheet (Scroll to view this)
Wheat also came in higher than the estimates while soybeans were slightly below the estimates.
Corn Balance Sheet Change:
Here is the current balance sheet vs how this stocks report changed things.
Since they found +200 million bushels of old crop, that adds +200 million bushels to our new crop beginning stocks.
Which bumps new crop carryout from 2.1 to 2.3 billion without any other changes.
Current Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet +200 Beginning Stocks
Wheat Production:
Wheat production surprised high. This was mostly due to a surprise in winter wheat. As winter wheat production is up nearly +4% vs last year. Meanwhile spring wheat production is down over -8% vs last year.
2024/2025 US Crop Production:
Corn: 14.892 vs 14.885 estimate
Beans: 4.374 vs 4.366 estimate
Very small changes were made to last years crops as both yields were left unchanged at 179.3 and 50.7
Past Sell or Protection Signals
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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