GRAINS RALLYING INTO CHINA MEETING
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains and cattle rallying
Cattle gapped open higher
We have still yet to break USDA range
Meeting with China this week
Some harvest delays & early results not great
China buying soybeans on a regular basis
The million dollar question
Will China buy more or less than market thinks?
There is a big yield uncertainty
I still see ultimate lower yields
Corn & grains held key support levels
Farmers have sold a lot
China pushing for longer truce
What makes you uncomfortable? How to fix it?
Risk for buy rumor sell fact in meeting
We could have a balance sheet issue that isn’t going to be solved by creating more demand, it might be solved by higher prices
If you don’t have time in marketing. What are some routes you could take?
There are wild cards for a plenty of higher prices
Updated charts below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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A FEW CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
I’ll be diving into the charts deeper tomorrow.
But corn held that key support right where we needed to.
Because below this key support there is still a huge amount of air to the downside.
We had that potential bear flag last week, that became invalid today which is nice to see. We now have a larger time frame potential bull flag breakout.
We have still yet to break the highs or the lows from the USDA report day. So essentially we’ve just been completely sideways.
But we held key support, and the chart is starting to look better short term.
Here is an even more simplified look.
Again, we need to continue to hold the recent lows or it opens the door quiet a bit lower. Because we have zero support or volume if we break below $5.25. So that’s the clear level to hold.
If we break above the recent highs, the next point of interest is going to be $5.65 for now. But is subject to change.
Which is 161.8% of the recent lows up to those recent highs. Basically, 161.8% of the range we’ve been consolidating in.
Dec KC 🌾
I still expect us to find a bottom between here and the 61.8% retracement.
And I think this box will be the start of the next leg higher.
This golden zone re-challenges the old highs. We have a massive shelf of volume here acting as additional support.
Nov Beans 🌱
Beans are still completely sideways.
Trapped in this same range for the entire month of September.
As simple as it seems, whichever direction we break from the range will decide the next leg. As we are simply consolidating at this shelf of volume.
If we fail to hold the bottom of the range, there is a huge gap or air to the downside.
We will have to see if the China meeting gives bulls or bears anything to chew on.
Oct Feeders 🐮
We perfectly held where we wanted to.
Finding life right at the 61.8% retracement down to the August lows.
We also are setting up for a potential inverse head and shoulders.
If we can break above those recent highs it could spark some room to run. But for now that’s of course going to be resistance.
Oct Live 🐮
Same thing here.
Bounced right where we needed to.
If we are able to take out the recent highs it could offer more upside.
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