AUDIO COMMENTARY

Cattle breaks some support
It’s going to be all about weather this weekend
Market will watch the July forecasts
Markets closed about unchanged as they are waiting for some direction into the 3-day weekend
Often see a market mover after 4th weekend
July USDA week from tomorrow
USDA rarely lowers yield this early
Beans reject resistance again (chart below)
Soybeans in no mans land right now
Corn hasn’t broke resistance yet (chart below)
Market hasn’t put in much weather premium
Soybeans have been sideways for a month
China steps in when they have a concern
Buyers aren’t concerned about new crop yet
Options got cheap again after report
Who should own puts vs calls?
What is your specific marketing situation?
Do something that fits your weakness
Chart breakdowns below audio*

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CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

Nice pop the last few days.

Still in the downward channel.

Need to break above $4.50 to confirm a local bottom.

If we can do that, we have a volume gap to the upside so prices could run.

If we clawed back half the sell off it would be $4.66. That’s going to be a good area to defend if it were to come. Doesn’t have to, but if it does we want to defend it.

One potential positive sign is that we just had bullish divergence on the RSI. Prices made new lows, the RSI did not. Which often signals a weakness in downward pressure.

At the same time, the MACD crossed bullish for the first time since April. Which is another potential sign that momentum is trying to shift higher down here.

Sep Corn 🌽

Same story here.

Need to break above that $4.33 level to confirm a true bottom.

That’s the recent highs and previous support.

We are sitting at an area of very high volume.

If we can break above this high volume area, we have a volume gap to the upside. Markets tend to move through areas of low volume fast.

Aug Beans 🌱

Stuck in no mans land.

We’ve been trapped in a tight range and coiling for about a month now.

If you notice, we are sitting at an area of high volume. Otherwise known as a volume shelf.

With pockets of air to the upside and the downside.

So if we break out of this range, things could really start to move. Both to the upside and the downside. Waiting to see which direction we break. Once it breaks, the move could be accelerated due to the low volume.

Something to note is that we did just show bullish divergence. The MACD crossed bullish for the first time since April. The last two times it crossed bullish led to a rally. So that’s potentially a positive sign.