HOW BULLISH WAS USDA?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Markets were higher overnight pre-USDA
USDA drops corn yield to 180.7
Offset loss in yields with higher acres
Production actually higher despite drop
Bumped old crop and new crop exports
The carryout dropped via export demand
Corn stocks to use dropped to 10%
How friendly was the report?
Risk of finding more acres again
Beans have more crop potential vs corn
Watching crop ratings here
We added more supply in this report
Record corn + beans acres
Sep USDA report will be field data
Net carryout increased in beans
Mother Nature been friendlier to beans
We don’t have supply to meet China goal
Don’t want to give away beans off combine
Generic marketing
Want to see some follow through
Demand is not slowing down at all
Why there is a lot of potential
Could we see +$5.00 corn?
Listen to today’s audio below
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Office: (806)484-1214
BALANCE SHEET CHANGES
(Red highlights a bearish change. Green is a bullish change. Yellow is no change)
New Crop Corn 🌽
Lots of changes happened.
They dropped yield, but at the same time they increased acres.
This actually led to our net production seeing a very slight increase of +13 million. As the acres more than offset the loss in yield.
They then raised old crop exports by +75 million. Which led to our beginning stocks falling by -75 million.
At the same time they raised our new crop exports by +75 million.
Which led to a loss of -150 million to the carryout.
If you take the -150 million loss plus the increase of +13 million from production, our total carryout change was -137 million.
Resulting in our stocks to use dropping from 11% to nearly 10%.
New Crop Beans 🌱
The increase in acres more than offset the loss in yield.
Resulting in our total supply to increase by +39 million.
However they bumped crush demand by +30 million.
So our net carryout increased by +10 million.
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Jeremey & Office: (806)484-1214
Sebastian: (605)280-1186
Email: sfrost@dailymarketminute.com
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