WORLD GRAIN SITUATION IS DIFFERENT
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Corn rejecting key level (chart below)*
Cattle continues to bleed
Poor closes in the grains
New highs but reversed lower
Sunday night weather will be big again
How will the Russia situation develop?
They took out heat in forecasts. Will it return?
The world situation is different than before
World is using more than we are growing
The world has the largest consumption vs production deficit since 2004
Possibility for not massive SA crops
Still have Super El Nino in SA
Wheat stocks for major exporters is 19 year low
Funds like to be short wheat. Opens covering
The long term story is the friendliest it’s been in a long time
If you are going to be forced to move something you should be proactive on rallies like this
If you’re undersold or nervous puts are cheap
Market is at an inflection point and could break higher or lower here soon
Corn vs wheat options & trade ideas
Short term there is risk. Long term there is a story
Never back yourself in a corner in marketing
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio here
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CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
We nearly tagged the 61.8% retracement of the entire sell off.
Smack dab in the golden zone.
This is going to be where the market decides if this is a correctional bounce in a downtrend or not. As if it is, this would be the most common area to fail.
Not only is this the golden zone. It’s right where the market bounced in April. It’s also right where we failed to break through on several occasions last year.
So this is a pretty key support & resistance level.
This entire rally is viewed as just a correctional bounce in a broader downtrend unless we break above $4.76. If you take that out, then things get interesting.
We had that sell signal Monday morning. I still like defending this level if you are someone who is undersold or who knows you will have to move something due to lack of storage, cash flow etc.
Sep Corn 🌽
Failed the 50% retracement.
As always, the golden zone is the most common spot for a relief bounce to fail. Which is why I’m cautious up here.
That same level was key support last year.
Like in Dec corn, this is a key area.
Nov Beans 🌱
Sitting at an area of high volume still. Right at a massive volume shelf up near the May highs.
If we break below this volume shelf, there is a volume gap to the downside.
If we break above this volume shelf, then there is of course room to run.
Short term, I am cautious as there is bearish divergence on the RSI. Prices made new highs, the RSI did not.
That is not an end-all, be-all indicator. But it’s a possible warning sign that upside momentum is getting weaker up here.
Aug Beans 🌱
Also sitting at this area of high volume. We have some clear resistance here bulls need to break to spark further upside.
Bulls simply want to hold the $11.65 level. As below, there is a big gap or air to the downside.
Sep KC Wheat 🌾
Huge rally yesterday.
We broke above the golden zone. Which is a good, as often times that means the overall trend is now higher. As most correctional bounces fail between the 50-61.8% levels. Hence the area we are being cautious of in corn.
One thing to note is that we are getting very overbought. So a pause or pullback would not be a surprise at all.
I did not love today’s candle either, which adds caution. Somewhat of an island top.
So if you are short on time, I do like protecting here.
Long term, still potential.
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