BEARISH USDA, BULLISH REACTION
AUDIO COMMENTARY
USDA report wasn’t friendly
Market didn’t believe USDA
Corn acre surprise again
Do funds have a reason to stay short
Renewable fuel news
Negative report positive price action
Highest corn acres since 1936
World wheat bearish surprise
Production went higher yet prices traded higher
Could see a corn sell signal next week
Don’t get hosed on basis
Corn pennant breakout (chart below)*
Beans at golden zone (chart below)*
Wheat breaking out? (chart below)*
Cattle fails golden zone (chart below)*
USDA numbers below*
Listen to todays audio below
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CHART BREAKDOWNS
Dec Corn 🌽
We broke out of this bullish pennant pattern I showed you yesterday. This is a bullish pattern.
Not only that, but we finally busted above this downward trend that has marked our highs several times since April. Also a friendly sign.
Our target is still $4.35
That gives back 50% of the Feb highs. It is also some key support from spring.
Nov Beans 🌱
We are at a very key spot here.
As I showed earlier this week, $10.47 is the spot to watch.
It reclaims 61.8% of this recent sell off.
If we break above or fail, we will know if this bounce is simply a correctional bounce or something bigger.
If we break above, odds favor us going higher and will tell us this is not a correctional bounce.
If we fail here, it could still be a correctional bounce meaning this lows might not be in.
Big spot for beans. As $10.47 tells us if the lows are in or not.
Dec Wheat 🌾
We are breaking out of this falling wedge pattern after posting a nice reversal candle yesterday.
My bias leans higher here.
A falling wedge pattern is bullish more often than not. We are trying to break through right now.
If we break above $5.35 I think we have a lot of room to run.
The first resistance is at $5.52
Oct Feeder 🐮
We failed to the hold golden zone retracement of the recent rally.
This is not a good sign.
As it opens the door lower.
We could very easily test the blue box, which is the golden zone of the entire rally since June.
USDA NUMBERS
Corn Balance Sheet Change
Red = Bearish
Green = Bullish
The acre increase offset the loss in yield.
The bump in exports resulted in a very very small decrease on the carryout.
Bean Balance Sheet Change
The slight increase in acres offset the slight decrease to yield.
The bump in crush & seed demand offset the loss in export demand.
Resulting in a small net increase to carryout.
NUMBERS VS ESTIMATES
Past Sell & Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Aug 22nd: 🌱
Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.
July 31st: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
July 10th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 5th: 🐮
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.
June 2nd: 🌾
MPLS wheat sell signal.
April 10th: 🌽
Old crop corn sell signal.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
KC wheat & corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans sell signal.
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Dec 11: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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