WHEAT BLACK SEA RALLY LEADS GRAINS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Very strong day for grains
New highs for the moves
Cattle under pressure again
Rallied well off lows in cattle
Counter seasonal rally
Natural pullback yesterday
Wheat leading the way
Russia rejected Ukraine ceasefire
IV in wheat has ramped way up
The market is realizing “potential”
Less fertilizer won’t add production globally to the wheat market
Wheat puts are little too expensive
We like selling the volatility in wheat
USDA showed how solid demand is
What if the corn crop gets smaller?
What is cross hedging?
Concerns about too much rain
Fundamentals changed in our favor
There is still plenty of risks
If you do or do not have storage
Major runs don’t have to last long
Still going to harvest 16 billion bushels
Pro Farmer tour on Monday
Wheat target below audio*
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHART BREAKDOWNS
Dec KC Wheat 🌾
We are blasting above that major shelf of volume.
We still have that cup and handle pattern we’ve been talking about that is looking pretty good.
A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern inside an uptrend.
The rough implied move comes in around $8.40-50 if we are able to break above those highs from July.
The July highs are of course going to be the first level we need to break.
That same level is the golden fib from the recent lows to the recent highs. Which is a continuation target and can be a common area to stall.
We do also have the MACD about to cross bullish for the first time since the July lows.
It’s not a perfect indicator, but the last few times it has resulted in further upside.
Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾
We bounced perfectly.
Right inside that golden zone right where we wanted to see us hold.
We also have a cup and handle pattern here.
The chart looks solid.
We are now sitting in the golden zone up to the recent highs, if we are able to break through the next stop is those highs.
Something to note is that KC already broke above it’s golden zone.
Nov Beans 🌱
We are bouncing right where we need to.
At that major level we’ve been talking about for a long time now.
We gave back 61.8% of the entire rally from June.
That same level is those highs from March.
So we are trying to turn that old ceiling into our new floor. Just like we did on the June lows. We bounced right at the highs from last November.
We are currently still sitting at this massive area of volume. Which can act as a magnet but also a launch pad if we break above or below. As there is a volume gap beneath the recent lows.
We’d like to break back above $12.00 to say we are out of the woods. But for now, it looks good as we continue to hold right where we need to.
This is another reason this was a big level and an area where a bounce would make sense.
We hit the one to one move from the June sell off.
This sell off is the exact same size as that one.
The MACD is on the verge of crossing bullish here as well.
The last few times led to further upside.
This doesn’t mean we “have” to go higher.
It simply suggests mometum is trying to shift higher.
Dec Corn 🌽
We held right where we needed to.
We have back 50% of the entire rally from June.
Finding life right at that peak volume shelf and support from last fall.
We do have somewhat of a bull flag breakout here.
First we have to take out the recent highs, then we have the highs from May.
IF you are able to break both of those highs, I have another target sitting at $5.13
That is the 161.8% move (golden fib) from the recent lows to the recent highs.
Targets are subject to change, but that is something I have my eyes on as a little longer term target for now.
That level also sits perfectly at those contract highs of $5.12
The MACD did offically cross bullish today.
The last 3 times have led to more upside, so something to note.
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