USDA SETS STAGE IN 2 DAYS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Crude up on more war headlines
No major changes in crop ratings
DTN has a 178.5 corn yield
Yield will decide if we are fairly priced
If we are 180 or lower we are too cheap
Plenty of pockets are struggling
If supply is not there the markets job will be to ration demand with better prices
Failed to hold overnight rally
Remaining patient for now in sales
Good ways to help your bottom line
Why the spreads in different classes of wheat?
Export inspections running way above pace
Get comfortable with the volatility
Options pricing in 10-12 cent move in corn
Collecting premium like an insurance company
Trade ideas based on your situation below*
Full chart breakdowns below trade ideas*
Listen to today’s audio below
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PRE-USDA TRADE IDEAS
Here are several trade ideas based on your situation. Whether you want some downside protection, upside exposure, a combo of both, or if you want to use the event volatility.
Here is a PDF version you can download and view as well.
(Disclaimer: there is risk of loss trading futures and options. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results. This is our opinion and should be treated as such.)
CHART BREAKDOWNS
Nov Beans 🌱
Still consolidating here at key support.
We gave back 61.8% of the entire rally. The most common level.
We are now testing those highs from March trying to turn them into support.
On the May/June sell off, the market bottomed after giving back 50-61% of the entire rally from January. We then also bottomed at the highs from November.
So a very similar set up.
If we are going to bounce, this would be the spot we’d expect to see it happen.
However, it is still a very key must hold spot. As if we break below, there is some air to the downside.
Here is a side by side comparion of the current pullback vs the June pullback.
Both at the golden zone. Right at prior highs.
We have also just about hit the 1 to 1 move from the June sell off.
As this current sell off is just about the exact same size as that previous sell off.
Those arrows are the same exact size.
Another possible reason to think we could bottom in this area.
Dec Corn 🌽
We’ve given back 50% of the entire rally.
We simply want to hold between here and the 61.8% level.
This zone is where we would typically find a bottom if this is simply just your normal pullback before resuming higher.
If we break that level, we likely test the contract lows.
KC Wheat 🌾
We have also given back 50% of the entire rally.
The must hold spot is that 61.8% level at $6.74.
If we can hold this zone, we are setting up for a potential cup and handle pattern.
If we break that level, it opens the door to further downside and tells us this isn’t just a normal pullback.
If we are going to bounce, the most common spot would be this zone.
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