AUDIO COMMENTARY

Cattle market absolutely hammered again
Why Monday was a reason for caution
Market is little nervous about corn exports
I think the corn sales will eventually come
What happens when crop isn’t as big as expected
When should you use or not use basis contracts?
Why you need to be careful with basis contracts
You typically do not want use basis contracts in a carry market. You want to use them in an inverted market
How to take advantage of a carry market
We have an interview with USDA next week
Questions we will be asking USDA
Is there still any possible way for a bull market?
Potential for scares in South America
Options are dirt cheap for those who want exposure
Why wheat still has a possible story
Could China buy US wheat and why?
When wheat gets volatile, it can get crazy
Pay storage or use the money on calls?
Are things benefiting you or the elevator?
It makes sense for some to own cheap volatility
We don’t have a guaranteed burdensome situation
Wheat IV data below audio*
Chart breakdowns below audio*

Listen to today’s audio below

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CHART BREAKDOWNS

Make sure you scroll past the charts as we included the wheat implied volatility data that Jeremey talked about in his audio below these technical charts.

Jan Beans 🌱

Here is a simple way to look at what I am watching here.

We have turned all highs into new lows all year long. But there is a catch.

We have continued to fail to hold the most revent prior high. Instead, we have bounced off the high before it.

In June, we failed to hold the March highs. Then bottomed at November highs.

In August, we failed to hold the May highs. Then bottomed at March highs.

Now we have failed to hold the July highs. So the next big point of interest is going to be those May highs. We have yet to turn those into support.

The May highs also give back 61.8% of the entire rally from June. Another reason to make between here and those May highs a big point of interest.

If you fail to hold that 61.8% level, the next level would be those August lows (which is also 78.6% of the June rally but it’s not on this chart).

Dec Corn 🌽

That $4.40 to $4.45 range has marked 5 separate bottoms in this market.

That is where bulls are going to want to see this market find some life.

As that is your last support before contract lows.

The only time we breached this support zone was the contract lows. Even so, we were under under the support for a week or so.

I’ll some more charts next week.

One thing I am watching is the MACD.

It has not yet crossed bullish, but it has started to curl higher.

The last several times it has crossed bullish, a bounce did soonly follow.

Dec KC Wheat 🌾

Going to keep it simple here.

We are approaching virtually our last support before contract lows.

This is 78.6% of the contract highs to contract lows.

It is the June and spring lows.

Bulls ideally see the market hold here soon.

Dec Chicago 🌾

Another very simple look here.

Like in KC, this is your last support between contract lows.

The June lows and highs from late last year.

Dec Live 🐮

We rejected right off that 61.8% retracement we had been talking about.

I had been very vocal about protecting this rally. As we hit that key level and were getting overbought.

Now bulls want to see this green box hold. This is the golden zone from the highs all the way down to the lows. Ideally you hold here if the uptrend is still in place.

For now, I still believe this market is in a broader downward trend as I have been talking about for a while.