GEOPOLITICS & WEATHER
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Cattle continues to get hit
Cattle breaking support but oversold
US imports of Argy beef at all-time high
There is geopolitical risk in markets
If you know you have to do marketing
Crude back over $80 with war news
Russia grain exports getting restricted
Countries could struggle with fertilizer
Crop conditions improved
Grains closed well off their lows
We don’t need a crop failure for things to get tight
Even 3rd biggest corn crop ever is tight
Weather rallies usually get sold
Add floors if it makes sense
Charts below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
We had that sell signal yesterday morning when we gapped open higher. We have now filled that gap.
We clawed back 50% of the entire sell off. Between there and the 61.8% levels are the most common spots for a relief bounce to fail.
The overall trend in corn is still lower unless we break above $4.75. Meaning this is viewed as a relief bounce in a downtrend unless we break above that level.
We rejected right off that key resistance.
Failing right where this market failed on multiple occasions last fall. The same spot where we bounced back in April. That was the reason for the sell signal, as it simply makes sense to de-risk at areas of key resistance.
I think we have long term potential fundamentally. But short term, we are up near resistance and the seasonals aren’t in our favor either.
One extra reason for caution is the bearish divergence on the RSI.
Prices posted new highs. The RSI did not. This is often a sign that upside momentum is getting weaker.
This does not mean we “have” to go lower, but it can be a warning sign. We saw bearish divergence at those May highs. We saw bullish divergence at the recent lows.
So I do think there is a reason for caution.
Sep Corn 🌽
Identical set up here, altough Sep has lagged Dec.
We found resistance right at those key support levels from the fall. Hence yesterday’s signal.
We are also showing bearish divergence here which has me cautious.
Nov Beans 🌱
We had that sell signal last week at these levels.
Currently we are chopping around at this volume shelf.
Areas of high volume can act as magnets.
We are also potentially rejecting off that old trendline support.
One other thing to note is that we are showing bearish divergence on the RSI like in corn.
So that has me additionally cautious here.
Aug Beans 🌱
Also chopping around at this massive volume shelf.
Really bulls want to hold $11.65
Which is the bottom of that old range we were trapped in earlier this year.
Below that there is of course a volume gap lower. Everytime we’ve traded in that volume gap we’ve ran straight through. Both the upside and downside.
We are also showing bearish divergence on the RSI which adds some caution here like in the rest of the charts.
Sep KC 🌾
We had that sell signal on Friday after the big rally.
Yesterday we rejected in that golden.
That’s going to be a very common spot for a rally to stall. Which is why we like defending this level if you are someone who needs to do so.
We have a possible head and shoulders pattern here as well.
Sep Chicago 🌾
We rejected right at that 61.8% level. The most common level for a rally to reject.
We also have a far more textbook head and shoulders pattern.
So unless we break above that 61.8% level, I am cautious here.
Aug Feeders 🐮
Cattle does not look hot here. I believe some of the contracts have been lower nearly 12 days in a row.
Be failed to hold that golden zone, so it could open the door lower.
I did not add the indicators on here, but we are getting pretty oversold.
Aug Live 🐮
We broke the golden zone.
That was also the lows from June and the highs from Feb.
So not a great sign as it suggest the trend may be lower now.
But again we are getting oversold and due for a bounce.
Recent Updates
July 11th: Audio
Last Years Crop Overstated?
July 10th: Video
Friendly USDA. What’s it Mean?
July 9th: Audio
Sunday Weather & USDA Tomorrow
July 10th: Audio
Grains Take a Breather
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