ENTIRE WEEK OF SIDEWAYS GRAINS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Cattle rejects resistance now at support
Need to see cattle bounce here at line in sand
Grains sideways for a week now
Still inside USDA report range 6 days later
Funds bought to make money
Grains waiting for direction and breakout either way
Meal posts fresh new highs again
Could see MPLS try to gain on other wheat
Are the highs in for the year? I’d say not likely
Biggest risk is yield jumping next report
I don’t think the yields are ultimately there
I think funds likely buy a new record
Just because you are bullish does not mean you should not have a plan. Do some sort of marketing that fits your risk tolerance
What if we make a leg lower and you’re forced to sell?
Why you need to be proactive and comfortable
Report was something for the bulls & bears
The USDA day highs & lows will be very key
Eyes on the meeting with China
Still have Middle East & Black Sea issues
Going to get more evidence on production soon
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHART BREAKDOWNS
Dec Corn 🌽
So far we’ve rejected that target where we sent out that sell signal and hedge alert. Since the orginal pullback, we have been completely sideways for a week now.
The biggest thing to watch is that $5.28 level. The first retracement level of 23.6%.
We have continued to bounce there countless times the last few weeks. Today was like the 8th time we’ve bounced there.
If we break below, it could easily spark a good leg lower. So bulls absolutely want to hold here short term.
If you notice, there is zero volume or support beneath this level. So it could trigger more downside.
I do want to note that we have a potential bear flag pattern right now. However, this is only confirmed if we post new lows.
If we get a pullback, I am eyeing the $5.04 range. That gives back half the August rally. It would re-test the May highs. The implied move from the bull flag also takes you about into that range. With the unfilled gap sitting there as well.
Overall, I am still cautious up here short term.
So far no signs of a bottom on the indicators either.
MACD crossed bearish last week. Still curling lower.
The stochastics have not yet bottomed.
Nov Beans 🌱
Soybeans in complete no man’s land.
We have been completely sideways all month long now.
So the two obious levels to watch are the USDA highs and lows. As we have not yet traded outside the USDA day’s range.
If we get the breakout I’ll have some more upside targets as we are still sitting at that orginal target.
If we start to break down, it could cause a decent leg lower. As there is zero volume below this level.
The indicators make me slightly nervous here short term.
We had that bearish divergence on the RSI.
We have the MACD starting to cross bearish for the first time since those July highs. Suggesting momentum might be starting to weaken.
Dec KC Wheat 🌾
We rejected right off that target and level we sent out that sell signal & hedge alert.
Now we are entering into an area where a bottom would make sense.
Between this 50% to 61.8% retracement down to the August lows is where I would expect us to find a bottom.
That box lines up with a re-test of the prior highs. Trying to turn them into our new floor.
We also have a volume shelf sitting right there as well which can act as a magnet and support.
If we break below that level I would start to be concerned. But for now the chart is playing out just as expected.
Oct Live Cattle 🐮
We rejected that key resistance and golden zone we talked about last week.
As we had that hidden bearish divergence giving us a warning sign. Which was why we talked about being proactive up at those levels.
Now we are quickly falling into a make or break area.
As we’ve already given back 50-61.8% of the entire bounce we just saw.
Bulls need to hold here or we likely re-visit the lows.
This level tells you if this is a simple pullback or something more.
Oct Feeder Cattle 🐮
Same exact set up here.
We rejected old support and new resistance.
Had hidden bearish divergence.
Now entering a make or break spot.
Which would be the golden zone to the downside.
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