BEARISH USDA, BULLISH REACTION

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • USDA report wasn’t friendly

  • Market didn’t believe USDA

  • Corn acre surprise again

  • Do funds have a reason to stay short

  • Renewable fuel news

  • Negative report positive price action

  • Highest corn acres since 1936

  • World wheat bearish surprise

  • Production went higher yet prices traded higher

  • Could see a corn sell signal next week

  • Don’t get hosed on basis

  • Corn pennant breakout (chart below)*

  • Beans at golden zone (chart below)*

  • Wheat breaking out? (chart below)*

  • Cattle fails golden zone (chart below)*

  • USDA numbers below*

Listen to todays audio below

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CHART BREAKDOWNS

Dec Corn 🌽

We broke out of this bullish pennant pattern I showed you yesterday. This is a bullish pattern.

Not only that, but we finally busted above this downward trend that has marked our highs several times since April. Also a friendly sign.

Our target is still $4.35

That gives back 50% of the Feb highs. It is also some key support from spring.

Nov Beans 🌱

We are at a very key spot here.

As I showed earlier this week, $10.47 is the spot to watch.

It reclaims 61.8% of this recent sell off.

If we break above or fail, we will know if this bounce is simply a correctional bounce or something bigger.

If we break above, odds favor us going higher and will tell us this is not a correctional bounce.

If we fail here, it could still be a correctional bounce meaning this lows might not be in.

Big spot for beans. As $10.47 tells us if the lows are in or not.

Dec Wheat 🌾

We are breaking out of this falling wedge pattern after posting a nice reversal candle yesterday.

My bias leans higher here.

A falling wedge pattern is bullish more often than not. We are trying to break through right now.

If we break above $5.35 I think we have a lot of room to run.

The first resistance is at $5.52

Oct Feeder 🐮

We failed to the hold golden zone retracement of the recent rally.

This is not a good sign.

As it opens the door lower.

We could very easily test the blue box, which is the golden zone of the entire rally since June.


USDA NUMBERS

Corn Balance Sheet Change

Red = Bearish

Green = Bullish

The acre increase offset the loss in yield.

The bump in exports resulted in a very very small decrease on the carryout.

Bean Balance Sheet Change

The slight increase in acres offset the slight decrease to yield.

The bump in crush & seed demand offset the loss in export demand.

Resulting in a small net increase to carryout.

NUMBERS VS ESTIMATES


Past Sell & Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
 

Aug 22nd: 🌱 

Soybean sell signal & hedge alert.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


July 31st: 🐮 

Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


July 10th: 🐮 

Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


June 5th: 🐮 

Cattle sell signal & hedge alert.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


June 2nd: 🌾

MPLS wheat sell signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


April 10th: 🌽 

Old crop corn sell signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


March 19th: 🐮 

Cattle hedge & sell signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾 

KC wheat & corn signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱 

Corn & beans sell signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱 

Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Jan 2nd: 🐮 

Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Dec 11: 🌽

Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Oct 2nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 30th: 🌽 

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 27th: 🌱 

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 13th: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

May 22nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW


Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys. If you need help with anything at all, don’t hesitate to shoot us a call, text, or email.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com


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HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT DID USDA MAKE?

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USDA OUT TOMORROW