GRAINS GIVING BACK RISK PREMIUM
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Poor action across the grains again
Weather & war give. Weather & war take
Weather looks favorable short term
Crop ratings well below last year
Bulls looking for more fuel
Next big mover is August USDA
What’s the trend of crop ratings?
Market usually bottoms in August
What’s Sunday night going to bring?
Friendly stuff when it comes to demand
More upside potential vs downside risk
What is your time table?
Corn nearing golden zones
Wheat still has a “possible” story
Premium leaving the market
New crop bean exports 4 year highs
Demand is very real
What is the job of the market?
Respect downside possibilities
Where do we need to hold? Charts below*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
Sep Corn 🌽
We failed right in that golden zone from contract lows up to contract highs. Which was a very key level we had been talking about and area to defend.
Not only was it the golden zone of the entire life of the contract, it was past support and resistance.
So now what?
We need to the hold the downside golden zone between $4.30 to $4.37
Which gives back 50% to 61.8% of the entire rally.
This level was also past key support.
If that level fails, it tells us this is likely not a normal correction and an uptrend, but rather favors further downside.
Dec Corn 🌽
We failed at that 78.6% level up to the May highs.
What do we now need to hold?
We need to hold the golden zone. Which gives back 50% to 61.8% of the entire rally.
Which comes in at $4.51 to $4.59
If we break below the 61.8% level it would favor downside continuation. And indicate that the market is starting to roll over rather than simply seeing a normal correction.
If we are going to bounce, we want and need to see it happen in that green box.
Nov Beans 🌱
We need to hold this golden zone.
Again that is 50% to 61.8% of the entire rally.
The must hold level is $11.73 at the 61.8% level.
This same level has been key resistance and support in the past.
If we break this level there is downside risk and that volume gap lower.
Sep KC 🌾
We broke the 38.2% level.
Could very possibly head for the golden zone. As there is a volume gap down to those levels.
The must hold spot is the 61.8% level at $6.74
That same level was prior key support and resistance a few times.
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