GRAINS GREEN DESPITE CRUDE DOWN HARD
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Strong day in the grains despite crude
Cattle well off the highs
Crude getting hit with war headlines
Grains gapped lower but reversed higher
Outside up day in corn
Grains holding the golden zones
Why the reversal today?
Salty exports & technical buying
Corn conditions dropped -2% again
Conditions not even close to last year
Demand is not slowing down
Should you look to re-own?
China keeps buying soybeans
Russia headlines continue
Weather isn’t as bullish as it was
Negative news but traded higher
USDA report on the 12th
StoneX estimates out this week
Funds longest since 2012
Get protection if you have to move stuff
Bean re-ownership idea below audio*
Chart breakdowns below audio*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
Nov Beans 🌱
We perfectly held that golden zone right where we wanted to see us do so.
Not only does this level give back 61.8% of the entire rally from June. It’s also the highs from March and an area of high volume.
If we are going to bounce, this is where we would want to see it happen and where it would make sense to see it happen.
As if we break below this level it opens the door lower and tells us this may not just be your normal correction before resuming the uptrend.
So this is a very key level. My bias remains higher unless that level breaks. If that level breaks, we could expect further downside.
Reownership Strategy
Disclaimer: there is risk of loss trading futures and options. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results. This is our opinion and should be treated as such.
We did not issue a full blown buy alert today.
However, since we are at key support, this would be an area we like considering to re-own.
Here is a possible strategy you could consider:
Buy $12.00 call
Sell $13.00 call
Sell $11.70 put
This trade is roughly a zero cost trade, but does require margin.
What it does:
You make money from $12.00 to $13.00.
With $13.00 being the max upside.
If we drop to $11.70 you would re-own via futures.
If you have any questions or want to talk through your specific situation please feel free to give us a call or a text anytime.
Office: (806)484-1214
Sep Corn 🌽
We failed in the golden zone from the contract lows up to the contract highs. (blue box).
We’ve now given back half the rally. We tagged that 50% retracement down to the lows before bouncing.
We posted an outside up day today which is a good sign. As we broke below Friday’s lows before rallying and closing above Friday’s highs.
Overall bulls need to hold this golden zone. The golden zone is where we want to see a bottom. (green box).
Not only is this the golden zone. But it was where this market bottomed twice in the past. So it’s also key support.
So we absolutely need to hold the 61.8% level at $4.30. If we break that level it would favor downside continuation.
Dec Corn 🌽
Same exact set up here.
We posted an outside up day.
We tagged the 50% retracement before bouncing.
This zone is a must hold area and where we would expect to see a bounce.
If we break below $4.51 and the 61.8% level it would tell us this is no longer a simple correction before resuming the uptrend. It would instead favor more downside.
Sep Chicago Wheat 🌾
We are sitting right in the golden zone.
Not only is this the golden zone, but it’s some very key prior support as well as resistance.
It was the highs from early spring. It was the lows from May. It was the highs from mid-June.
So if we were going to bounce, this would be a spot where it would make sense to see it happen.
On the flip side, if we lose the 61.8% level it would favor more downside.
Sep KC Wheat 🌾
We didn’t quiet make it into the golden zone like we did in Chicago.
However, in a strong market the 38.2% to 50% levels can be more common.
But overall bulls simple want to hold that 61.8% level. Which is also those highs from early spring and lows from May.
The bias remains higher unless we break below that level.
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Email: sfrost@dailymarketminute.com
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