WHAT THIS USDA MEANS FOR CORN

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Grains hammered with USDA

  • Feeders posting new highs for the move

  • Corn stocks came in 173 million above est

  • What does this report mean for corn?

  • We saw something similar in 2010

  • How similar is this story to 2010?

  • What exactly happened in 2010?

  • Does USDA know yield is dropping?

  • Increase in carryout was off farm

  • Dramatically more in elevators vs farmers hands

  • This report added a 2 bpa buffer

  • Yield doesn’t seem like it’s actually there

  • This is why those short on time need to be proactive

  • The volatility is here to stay

  • Avoid making emotional sales

  • Corn dropped right down to next support

  • This report doesn’t always go the same way as Oct USDA report

  • These are days to consider re-owning

  • Will corn carryout continue to shrink?

  • Where is the bottom for corn? (chart below)*

  • Corn chart breakdown below audio*

Listen to today’s audio below

9-30-2026

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DEC CORN CHART BREAKDOWN

By Sebastian:

Dec Corn 🌽

We’re 50 cents off the highs and from that Sep 2nd sell/hedge alert.

For the last several weeks, I have been talking about the downside risks if we failed to hold that support and range from earlier this month. (Although no, I wasn’t expecting that downside to all come in one day).

I’ve been saying I am cautious because there was a massive volume gap and zero support holding up this market below that prior support.

We broke massively today, but should we be worried?

I would say no. Corn has simply came down to that support we’ve been talking about. This area has been my downside target if we got a real pullback. Which we’ve now received.

We’re sitting right at the 50% retracement down to the August lows.

This re-tests those highs from May.

We are now back at an area of high volume after slicing through that volume gap.

I would expect us to find a floor between here and the 61.8% level at $4.93. If we break below that level it would not look great.

But the time to be bearish was at $5.50. Not down here at support.

If you watched or read my past videos. The indicators were a large reason as to why I have been short term cautious.

Now that the market has pulled back, the indicators have received a healthy reset.

The RSI is now finally getting oversold. Corn was trading at $4.30 the last time we were this oversold.

The stochastics have now finally came down into oversold territory. Which is something I’ve been looking for when searching for a bottom. As most of the time we don’t see a major bottom unless the stochastics bottom.

Let’s zoom out to the weekly chart.

Corn was trapped in a massive sideways range the last 3 years.

We broke out in August.

Now what does it look like we are doing?

For now this looks like a simple re-test of that old point of breakout. As we are right down at those highs from 2024 and the top of the range.

Old resistance often acts as new support.


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