AUDIO COMMENTARY

Nasty day for cattle
There were some signs of caution in cattle. Make sure you are comfortable in this market following the rally
Wheat under pressure with more Russia news
Maybe some capitulation in wheat?
Grains are clearly very oversold
Wheat goes really high really fast for little reason then wheat falls out of bed really fast for little reason
Locking the wheat bins until it’s higher
Wheat’s a crop you hold for long periods
If you made sales or protection on our alerts
Implied volatility has tanked and made options so much cheaper than they were for those that want to play with paper
What happens when Lula gets elected?
Brazil news doesn’t appear as bad as it seems
Basis contracts are not great for corn right now
Best move for a lot of you is spreading out risk
Deciding what to do if you’re in a corner
Helping remove some of the stress
Take the best of the no win situations
Oversold itself doesn’t turn the market
Do not be giving bunch of bushels away
Step up. Don’t let buyers take advantage of you
Questions to USDA waiting for clearance
Lock the doors or be proactive if you need to
Chart breakdowns below audio*

Listen to today’s audio below

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TECHNICAL CHART UPDATES

Dec Live Cattle 🐮

Rejecting right off that 61.8% retracement up to the contract highs like we’ve been talking about.

I have been pretty vocal about managing some risk up at these levels.

As this is a very common spot for a rally to stall. We were also getting overbought. The last few times this market was this overbought proved to be an opportunity.

Nov Feeders 🐮

We hit the 200% fib extension.

The 161.8%-200% levels are common targets we’ve been discussing.

Like in live cattle we are overbought, and I like managing risk up here if you have not yet done so.

Live cattle did pull back a lot harder than feeders today, so feeders are still up near the highs.

The MACD is also close to crossing bearish, which could possibly suggest momentum is starting to slow down.

Jan Beans 🌱

We are starting to potentially break below this support.

The 61.8% retracement down to the August lows.

We need to bounce asap or there is downside risk from here.

If you notice there is a massive gap of volume to the downside below the current shelf of volume we are fighting to hold.

If we start to slice through that volume gap, the next point of interest would be that $12.15 area.

That’s the next retracement level. That would also re-test the May highs. And it’s where the volume picks back up.

I personally do not see soybeans breaking below that oragne box.

Dec Bean Oil 🌱

One thing that is starting to concern me is soybean oil.

It’s sitting on some very critical support.

We have held this level all year long.

If it breaks there is plenty of air to the downside.

Dec Corn 🌽

We are clearly very oversold. The most oversold we’ve been in years.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in. However, it suggests the bleeding should at least stabilize soon.

We could turn anytime, but the big level we want to watch is $4.40 to $4.45.

That area has marked the bottom 5 separate times this year.

We do have a gap of air to that level and a volume shelf sitting at that level.

That is the last support between us and contract lows. So ideally we hold.

If we can start to break back above the green box and prior support, that would be a decent sign of a bottom.

If we do happen to post new lows, one thing we want to watch for is bullish divergence. If the RSI does not make new lows with prices that would be a possible bottom sign as well.

But for now, no clear indication that the bottom is in. Although I do think corn is undervalued down here..

Here is the 3-day chart.

Again that $4.40 to $4.45 range is the key spot we need to hold.

Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾

Sitting on life support here.

Pretty simple outlook.

This is your last support holding us back from contract lows.

We would like to see a bounce here, but this market has not been kind.

Regardless, feels like wheat is getting pretty undervalued down here.

Dec KC Wheat 🌾

Some fun facts:

KC wheat on a front month basis is the most oversold in at least a decade.
We’ve traded lower for 9 straight weeks. That ties the record set back in 2008.
We’ve been lower for 10 days in a row now

This market is clearly extremely oversold.

This is starting to feel like some capitulation, or last effort selling before printing a bottom. But for now, we haven’t seen anything confirming one.

We are sitting at life support here. Last support before contract low range.

So ideally we bounce soon.

Like I shared yesterday, roughly every 45 trading days has resulted in a pivot for this market. We are around 41 days in from the last one and the highs. So that’s also interesting.